Modeling Infectious Disease Spread Using Global Stochastic Field Simulation

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Susceptibles-infectives-removals (SIR) and its derivatives are the classic mathematical models for the study of infectious diseases in epidemiology. In order to model and simulate epidemics of an infectious disease, a global stochastic field simulation paradigm (GSFS) is proposed, which incorporates geographic and demographic based interactions. The interaction measure between regions is a function of population density and geographical distance, and has been extended to include demographic and migratory constraints. The progression of diseases using GSFS is analyzed, and similar behavior to the SIR model is exhibited by GSFS, using the geographic information systems (GIS) gravity model for interactions. The limitations ... continued below

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Venkatachalam, Sangeeta August 2006.

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  • Venkatachalam, Sangeeta

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Susceptibles-infectives-removals (SIR) and its derivatives are the classic mathematical models for the study of infectious diseases in epidemiology. In order to model and simulate epidemics of an infectious disease, a global stochastic field simulation paradigm (GSFS) is proposed, which incorporates geographic and demographic based interactions. The interaction measure between regions is a function of population density and geographical distance, and has been extended to include demographic and migratory constraints. The progression of diseases using GSFS is analyzed, and similar behavior to the SIR model is exhibited by GSFS, using the geographic information systems (GIS) gravity model for interactions. The limitations of the SIR and similar models of homogeneous population with uniform mixing are addressed by the GSFS model. The GSFS model is oriented to heterogeneous population, and can incorporate interactions based on geography, demography, environment and migration patterns. The progression of diseases can be modeled at higher levels of fidelity using the GSFS model, and facilitates optimal deployment of public health resources for prevention, control and surveillance of infectious diseases.

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  • August 2006

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  • May 5, 2008, 2:48 p.m.

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  • Dec. 15, 2008, 12:56 p.m.

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Venkatachalam, Sangeeta. Modeling Infectious Disease Spread Using Global Stochastic Field Simulation, thesis, August 2006; Denton, Texas. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc5335/: accessed June 26, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .