An Assessment of the Use of Student Price Response Models to Predict Changes in Undergraduate Enrollment at a Metropolitan University

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Most colleges and universities invest substantial resources in an effort to strategically plan for a sound financial base. The revenue for the financial base is dependent on student enrollment that must be effectively managed. Increases in the price of tuition and fees can lead to decreased enrollment and negatively impact the revenue of an institution. The increases can also impact the enrollment of certain student populations such as minority students and high school graduates enrolling in college for the first time. Many studies have analyzed the price elasticity and student price response models that have been developed over time by ... continued below

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Saxon, Randall J. December 2004.

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  • Saxon, Randall J.

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Most colleges and universities invest substantial resources in an effort to strategically plan for a sound financial base. The revenue for the financial base is dependent on student enrollment that must be effectively managed. Increases in the price of tuition and fees can lead to decreased enrollment and negatively impact the revenue of an institution. The increases can also impact the enrollment of certain student populations such as minority students and high school graduates enrolling in college for the first time. Many studies have analyzed the price elasticity and student price response models that have been developed over time by reviewing historical price increases and enrollment across institutions. Few studies have used the models to predict changes in the enrollment of students for one college or university after the increases in the cost of attendance are imposed on students. This study sought to analyze the effectiveness of the most commonly reviewed student price response and price elasticity models in predicting changes in undergraduate enrollment at one metropolitan academic university. The three models introduced by Leslie and Brinkman, St. John and Heller were used to analyze the tuition and fee increases and to identify the likely percentage of increase or decrease in student enrollment at the University of North Texas for the fall 2004 semester. The study predicted the change in undergraduate enrollment among Caucasian, Hispanic, African American and Asian student populations. The price elasticity among full-time students, part-time students, undergraduate transfer students and new from high school students entering the University of North Texas were also analyzed in the research study. The results of the study found the student price response developed by Heller accurately predicted decreases in enrollment among first-time undergraduate students, continuing undergraduate students and undergraduate Caucasian students. The model introduced by Heller accurately predicted increases in enrollment among first-time Asian undergraduate students, first-time African American undergraduate students, continuing Asian undergraduate students and continuing African American undergraduate students. The study found an inelastic demand to price elasticity among full-time and part-time students and undergraduate transfer students. New from high school students were found to have an elastic demand to price elasticity.

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  • December 2004

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  • Feb. 15, 2008, 3:47 p.m.

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  • June 24, 2008, 2:18 p.m.

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Saxon, Randall J. An Assessment of the Use of Student Price Response Models to Predict Changes in Undergraduate Enrollment at a Metropolitan University, dissertation, December 2004; Denton, Texas. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4653/: accessed September 23, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .