Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service Page: 106
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106 Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service
the substitution of EMS a single process. For the
purposes of this study, the mainstream was con-
sidered to be many different submarkets with
varying susceptibility to several different EMS
The competition between Generation II and
Generation III EMS technologies can be described
as follows. As EMS technology develops, Genera-
tion III systems eventually will most likely be less
expensive to use than Generation 11 systems be-
cause Generation III employs electronic, rather
than postal carrier, delivery. Also, Generation III
EMS technology will most likely advance to the
point where it will be able to accommodate any for-
mat or display capability that can be handled by
Generation II. In other words, any mainstream seg-
ment that can be diverted to Generation II EMS
can eventually be diverted to a Generation III
system as well. Furthermore, the switch to Gen-
eration III EMS will most likely occur when the
economics (to the user) favor Generation 111 over
Generation II EMS, and at that point Generation
III systems will start to take away market share
from Generation II systems.
Thus, in the market penetration model, penetra-
tions of conventional mail by Generation II EMS
and Generation III EMS were calculated separate-
ly using parameters derived from an assessment
of relevant technologies.* The volume resulting for
Generation III was then subtracted from the re-
sulting Generation 11 volume, producing a net
Generation II volume figure. The net Generation
II and Generation 111 volumes were subtracted
from the conventional mail volume to obtain the
residual conventional volume.
Figure B-2 illustrates the relationships involved
in a market segment where a portion of the total
message volume is judged suitable for penetration
by EMS. First, the total market in this segment
is shown as one that grows at a constant percent-
age rate. The potential market for EMS-the por-
tion of the market which is physically suitable for
* See table A-4.
Figure B-2.-Logistic Substitution Process for
Generation II vs. Generation III EMS
NOTES: P Maximum penetration potential
= Fraction of total market for EMS at time t
t2 = Fraction of total market for Generation Ill at time t
f2 - f = Fraction of total market for Generation II at time t
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment,
eventual transmission by EMS systems-is rep-
resented as a constant fraction P of the total
market. Initially, Generation II EMS begins to
penetrate the potential market, capturing a mar-
ket share f2 of the total market. Later, Generation
III begins to penetrate. At this point, the fraction
f2 represents the total EMS market share, and
Generation III growth comes at the expense of
Generation II. Hence f3, the result of a separate
substitution process, represents the market share
for Generation III, while the market share for
Generation II becomes f2- f3. For the assump-
tions used in this study, total substitution of Gen-
eration 111 for Generation II does not occur in any
mainstream market segment within the 20 year
timeframe of the market penetration projections.
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United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service, report, August 1982; [Washington D.C.]. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39480/m1/109/: accessed September 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.