Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service Page: 102
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102 Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service
Table A-1 -Baseline Mainstream, 1977, Billions of Pieces
To households To nonhouseholds
Mail content/class First Second Third Fourth Other Totals First Second Third Fourth Other Totals
Correspondence..... 6.6 ..... ....... .... 0.2 6.8 1.4 ..... ..... ..... (a) 1.4
instruments........ 0.1 ..... ....... ..... ..... 0.1 6.5 ..... .... .. ... ..... 6.5
Merchandise ........ (a) ..... (a) 0.1 ..... 0.1 - (a) (a) (a) ..... 0.1
Miscellaneous ....... 0.1 ..... ...... ..... ..... 0.1 1.2 ..... .... .. ... ..... 1.2
Totals ............ 6.8 ..... (a) 0.1 0.2 7.1 9.1 (a) (a) (a) (a) 9.2
Correspondence ..... . 1.5 - 0.1 (a) 0.1 1.7 5.2 - 0.5 - . .... 5.7
instruments....... 1.8 - (a) - (a) 1.9 1.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.5
Merchandise ........ 0.2 (a) 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 - - 0.7 0.1 ..... 0.8
Bills ............... 8.8 - 0.1 - (a) 8.9 8.4 - 0.1 - ..... 8.5
Financial statements. 2.6 - (a) - (a) 2.6 Included in bills
instruments ....... - - - -- - 1.9 - - - . .... 1.9
Other nonadvertising . 6.0 8.3 9.5 0.1 0.1 24.0 - 0.9 2.3 ..... ..... 3.2
Advertising ......... 1.1 0.1 7.2 0.1 (a) 8.5 2.3 - 3.0 - . .... 5.3
Miscellaneous ....... 0.5 - 0.4 - - 0.9 - - - - -
Totals ............ 22.5 8.4 17.9 0.5 0.4 49.7 19.3 0.9 6.6 0.1 0.3 27.3
aBetween 0.01 and 0.05 billion pieces.
SOURCES: Office of Technology Assessment; and M. Kallick, W. Rodgers, et al., Household Malistream Study, Final Report, prepared for the Mail Classification Divi-
sion, USPS, 1978. Also, Nonhousehold Mailstream Study, Interim Report for First Postal Quarter PFY 1979, July 1979. First-class mall includes penalty and
The major mail segments in table A-1 were
regrouped to combine some of the smallest cate-
gories, and to further divide some of the larger cat-
egories. For example, household/household cor-
respondence was separated into letters and greet-
ing cards, since the potential for electronic han-
dling of letters maybe significantly greater than
that of greeting cards. Also, nonhousehold/non-
household correspondence was separated into in-
tracompany and intercompany categories, since
the potential for electronic handling of intracom-
pany mail maybe developing significantly faster
than for intercompany mail. The miscellaneous
categories, merchandise, and segments with a
volume of less than 1 billion pieces per year were
combined into one expanded miscellaneous cat-
egory for each class of mail.
The mainstream segments resulting from this re-
grouping are listed in table A-2, along with the
mail class (first, second, third, fourth, other) and
1977 baseline mail volume for each segment. Those
segments judged to be susceptible to penetration
by EFT and/or EMS are marked by an "X" in
Table A-3 provides further detail on the EFT di-
version parameters (P, a , to) for each mainstream
segment judged to be susceptible to EFT.
Table A-4 provides complete detail on the Gen-
eration II and Generation III EMS diversion
parameters. In order to simplify the analysis, the
26 mainstream segments listed in table A-2 were
consolidated into 12 segments shown in table A-4.
For the purposes of table A-4, the analysis focused
on the type of mail content and sender/receiver
pairs, rather than on different classes of mail. The
parameters that determine the growth and timing
of the projected Generation II logistic substitution
curve for each mailstream segment are summa-
rized in the upper half of the cells in table A-4. For
each mainstream segment (column), the values a
and t. for Generation II are listed in the row op-
posite the technology that controls growth and
timing for that segment. For example, for Genera-
tion II household-household (H-H) greeting cards,
a = 0.2 and to = 1995 is projected, based on the
estimated availability of cost effective advanced
electronic printers. The parameters that determine
the growth and timing of the projected Generation
III logistic substitution curve for each mainstream
segment are shown in the lower half of the cells
in table A-4. Again, the values are shown in the
row opposite the controlling technological devel-
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United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service, report, August 1982; [Washington D.C.]. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39480/m1/105/: accessed August 17, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.