Maritime Security: Public Safety Consequences of a Terrorist Attack on a Tanker Carrying Liquefied Natural Gas Need Clarification Page: 2 of 46
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, GAO
aAccountabiity Integrity Reliability
Highlights
Highlights of GAO-07-316, a report to
congressional requestersWhy GAO Did This Study
The United States imports natural
gas by pipeline from Canada and by
tanker as liquefied natural gas
(LNG) from overseas. LNG-a
supercooled form of natural gas-
currently accounts for about 3
percent of total U.S. natural gas
supply, with an expected increase
to about 17 percent by 2030,
according to the Department of
Energy (DOE). With this projected
increase, many more LNG import
terminals have been proposed.
However, concerns have been
raised about whether LNG tankers
could become terrorist targets,
causing the LNG cargo to spill and
catch on fire, and potentially
explode. DOE has recently funded
a study to consider these effects;
completion is expected in 2008.
GAO was asked to (1) describe the
results of recent studies on the
consequences of an LNG spill and
(2) identify the areas of agreement
and disagreement among experts
concerning the consequences of a
terrorist attack on an LNG tanker.
To address these objectives, GAO,
among other things, convened an
expert panel to discuss the
consequences of an attack on an
LNG tanker.
GAO recommends that the
Secretary of Energy ensure that
DOE incorporates into its LNG
study the key issues identified by
the expert panel.
In reviewing our draft report, DOE
agreed with our recommendation.
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-316.
To view the full product, including the scope
and methodology, click on the link above.
For more information, contact Jim Wells at
(202) 512-3841 or wellsj @gao.gov.MARITIME SECURITY
Public Safety Consequences of a
Terrorist Attack on a Tanker Carrying
Liquefied Natural Gas Need ClarificationWhat GAO Found
The six unclassified completed studies GAO reviewed examined the effect of
a fire resulting from an LNG spill but produced varying results; some studies
also examined other potential hazards of a large LNG spill. The studies'
conclusions about the distance at which 30 seconds of exposure to the heat
(heat hazard) could burn people ranged from less than 1/3 of a mile to about
1-1/4 miles. Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) conducted one of the
studies and concluded, based on its analysis of multiple attack scenarios,
that a good estimate of the heat hazard distance would be about 1 mile.
Federal agencies use this conclusion to assess proposals for new LNG
import terminals. The variations among the studies occurred because
researchers had to make modeling assumptions since there are no data for
large LNG spills, either from accidental spills or spill experiments. These
assumptions involved the size of the hole in the tanker; the volume of the
LNG spilled; and environmental conditions, such as wind and waves. The
three studies that considered LNG explosions concluded explosions were
unlikely unless the LNG vapors were in a confined space. Only the Sandia
study examined the potential for sequential failure of LNG cargo tanks
(cascading failure) and concluded that up to three of the ship's five tanks
could be involved in such an event and that this number of tanks would
increase the duration of the LNG fire.
GAO's expert panel generally agreed on the public safety impact of an LNG
spill, but believed further study was needed to clarify the extent of these
effects, and suggested priorities for this additional research. Experts agreed
that the most likely public safety impact of an LNG spill is the heat hazard of
a fire and that explosions are not likely to occur in the wake of an LNG spill.
However, experts disagreed on the specific heat hazard and cascading
failure conclusions reached by the Sandia study. DOE's recently funded
study involving large-scale LNG fire experiments addresses some, but not all,
of the research priorities identified by the expert panel. The leading
unaddressed priority the panel cited was the potential for cascading failure
of LNG tanks.
LNG Tanker Passing Downtown Boston on Its Way to Port- _. - _ -_ - -- - _.....- _ _ _- -_ - . .-
Source: GAO.,United States Government Accountability Office
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United States. Government Accountability Office. Maritime Security: Public Safety Consequences of a Terrorist Attack on a Tanker Carrying Liquefied Natural Gas Need Clarification, report, February 22, 2007; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc302829/m1/2/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.