The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 50
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
The study has assessed the possible marginal social cost values from FUND under different future
scenarios, consistent with different emissions paths and global post-Kyoto policies. The results are
shown below and show the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions in the period 2000-
2009, for the business as usual scenario and various policy scenarios. The scenarios are ranked
according to the their maximum CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
This analysis has only been undertaken using the FUND best estimate for current emissions- it has
not been completed for future time periods, or with the full monte carlo analysis (to generate median
and mean values), as this would require detailed additional modelling work. This analysis is
highlighted as a priority for future work.
MaxCO2 0% 1% 3% Weitzman Gollier Greenbook
1352 22 4.4 -0.8 7.9 605 7.6
934 18 3.1 -1.1 6.2 588 6.1
846 17 2.7 -1.2 5.7 576 5.4
800 16 2.4 -1.2 5.4 566 5.1
720 15 2.0 -1.3 4.8 541 4.5
682 14 1.5 -1.5 4.4 527 3.8
658 13 1.5 -1.4 4.1 514 3.9
611 12 1.1 -1.5 3.6 485 3.4
577 11 0.7 -1.5 3.0 455 2.9
Source: FUND. Version 2.8. Pure rate of time preference. No equity weighting. Time horizon 2300. The values above do
not include all impacts of climate change, i.e. they are a sub-total of the 'full' value. They are presented only as an
illustration of the effects of discount rate. Including these other effects would have a large effect on the above values.
Figure 21. Marginal social costs under different policy scenarios (CO2 concentrations) from
FUND, current emissions, no equity weighting. Best Guess. Declining Greenbook discount
550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350
Note values are presented without equity weighting.
Note, the time profile excludes climate system 'surprises' and socially contingent effects
The analysis above shows a strong decline in the values with lower CO2 stabilisation concentrations.
The proposed stabilisation targets are on the far left of the graph (in fact off the scale to the left). The
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/61/: accessed November 24, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .