The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 49
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Figure 20. Distribution of total impacts based on the 450 ppm Scenario using the PAGE model
Distribution of total impacts, '450' scenario
Marginal Social Costs
Interestingly, the analysis did not show a large drop in the social cost of carbon under the three
scenarios. The results were $43/tC (43 Euro) under both the baseline and 550 ppm scenario, $40/tC
(40 Euro) under the 450 ppm scenario, reflecting several non-linearities in the effects). The reason
why this is true is not straightforward. It is caused by the interplay between the logarithmic
relationship between forcing and concentration (which will tend to make one extra tonne under the
550 ppm scenario cause more damage), the non-linear relationship of damage to temperature (which
will tend to make one extra tonne under the A2 scenario cause more damage), and discounting (which
will tend to make early damage more costly than late damage).
The FUND model, run by Richard Tol at the University of Hamburg has also been used to assess
damages as part of work commissioned for this study. In summary, The Climate Framework for
Uncertainty, Negotiation, and Distribution model, version 2.8, (FUND2.8) is an integrated assessment
model, coupling demographics, economy, technology, carbon cycle, climate, and climate change
impacts. FUND2.8 includes sea level rise, energy consumption, agriculture, forestry, water resources,
cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, malaria, dengue fever, schistosomiasis, diarrhoea and
ecosystems. Other impacts are unknown.
The model includes reduced forms of more complex models. It values impacts using standard
monetary valuation methods, particularly benefit transfer. It has a time period through to 2300, and
has 16 world regions.
The model has been used to explore the impact of discount rate and equity schemes on the marginal
social cost of carbon54. This was outlined in a previous section.
54 The Benefits Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: An Application Of Fund. Richard S.J. Tol. March 2005.
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/60/: accessed February 27, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .