The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 47
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Figure 16. Distribution of total impacts based on the A2 Scenario using the PAGE model
Distribution of total impacts, A2 scenario
50 100 150
Scenario 550 CO2 ppm (650 ppm CO2 equivalent)
Because of the stimulation of natural CO2 that is included in the PAGE model the scenario does not
actually stabilise at 550ppm. Mean CO2 concentration is about 594ppm by 2100 (635ppm by 2150,
670ppm by 2200). The figure below shows concentration over time.
Figure 17. Carbon dioxide concentration over time for the 550 ppm scenario
Global CO2 concentrations, '550' scenario
The mean temperature is 3.4C above pre-industrial by 2100. The figure below shows the global mean
temperature over time over time compared to the base year of 2000; add 0.5C to get global mean
temperature compared to pre-industrial.
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/58/: accessed December 17, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .