The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 43
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Figure 12. Social Cost of Climate Change Consultation based 14 respondents
SCC, 14 Respondents, 1tC
S= 4E-D8': - 3E- [05 . + 0I.I 6: - O.1I05?x - 10
Ri = 0.9337
The range of estimates from the scenarios, from all experts, ranged from -4 to 140 Euro/tCO2 (-$15 to
525/tC). Most experts believed that under conditions of low temperature change (2C), the costs
would be low, most probably below Euro 15/tCO2 (~$50/tC). In contrast, for high temperature
change (>4 o), the expert response of high costs, likely to be above > Euro 30/tCO2 (~$100/tC), and
plausibly with an upper bound of 140Euro/tCO2 ($525/tC). The responses, grouped into the three
categories (low, medium and high temperature change) are shown below.
A number of observations were made from the analysis:
* All experts thought minimum estimate might be close to zero/ a benefit, reflecting a view low or
moderate climate change has net benefits for some years;
* All increased their initial 'high' estimate as they went through the process, and were questioned on
issues such as the possibility of surprises or socially contingent effects;
* All felt the confidence in the numbers was very low;
* No single factor dominates uncertainty for larger estimates. Several combinations of factors could
lead to the impacts being over Euro 60/tCO2 ($200/tC)
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/54/: accessed November 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .