The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 30
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Assessing the Coverage of the Literature Values
As outlined in the main impact text, climate change affects different categories of impacts. Valuation
studies do not include the full list of all impacts. It is important to take account of these differences in
reviewing the values above, to ensure we are comparing like with like, and to assess the coverage of
the modelling estimates against all likely impacts of climate change. We have reviewed the studies
against a risk matrix36. This matrix separates climate change impacts, and valuation of those impacts,
into nine individual categories, described below:
Categories of impacts
The IPCC TAR shows three main categories of climate change, with different confidence levels,
* Projections. For example, with respect to (relatively) predictable trends such as sea level rise or
average global temperature rises.
* Bounded risks. Other elements are less clear, but which generally fall within a range that can be
assigned approximate probabilities, for example, the change in the probability of summer drought.
* System change and surprises. For example, the impacts related to large scale dynamics and
regional feedbacks that are currently beyond our ability to predict with much confidence, such as
alterations of North Atlantic Circulation, collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, or release of
Valuation of impacts
There is a similar range of confidence in our ability to provide robust estimates of economic damages.
The categories can be split into:
* Market damages, where we have high confidence, for example with respect to traded goods such
as for agriculture;
* Non-market damage, which is further split into
o Non-market goods where valuation is undertaken, for example with valuation of health
or ecosystems; and
o Socially contingent effects, such as regional conflict or poverty, where we are trying to
capture large-scale dynamics related to human values and equity that are poorly
represented in valuation estimates.
A risk-based approach combines both of these aspects, i.e. the nature of uncertainty in climate change
with the elements of economic valuation. Such a risk matrix shown provides some structure to the
search for more robust estimates of the costs of climate change, and helps inform what is covered in
the current economic values, and what is not. It provides a holistic approach for addressing categories
not covered by integrated assessment models and not likely to be covered in the foreseeable future.
36 Downing, T., and Watkiss, P. (2003). The Marginal Social Costs of Carbon in Policy Making: Applications, Uncertainty
and a Possible Risk Based Approach. Paper presented at the DEFRA International Seminar on the Social Costs of Carbon.
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
Here’s what’s next.
This text can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Text.
Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/41/: accessed March 19, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .