The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 20
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
McMichael presents a climate change risk assessment of the burden of disease with increasing carbon
dioxide concentration levels. The table above shows a risk assessment for the increase in malaria in
2030: for the Africa region, stabilisation at 550ppmv would see an increase in malaria of up to 9%
whereas the increase would be up to 17% if emissions were not abated in the period to 2030. The
direct effect of heat or cold deaths due to cardio-vascular disease, and risk of diarrhoea and other
direct climate effects (malnutrition and flood deaths) on human health are describe in similar risk
tables in McMicheal et al. (2003b).
Figure 3. Estimates for relative risks of malaria attributable to climate change
-BD: malar Estimates for relative risks of malaria attributable to climate change
in 2030, under alternative exposure scenarios. (For each entry, the lower value, 1.00,
indicates no change. Upper figure indicates that, e.g., malaria in African region, under
unmitigated emissions, would increase by up to 17% .)
Stabilization scenario adopted
at time To*
Attributable burden at To due to prior I I Unmitigated
climate change= a/(a+b) ,
Avoidable burden at Tx after stabilization III
at 550 ppmv at To = c/(c+d)** - - Stabilizn. 750 c
Disease - Stabilizn. 550
b u rd e s s . . .. ........................................
burden I" # * 0
I Avoidable burden by climate I
I stabilization from To
.0 _-- -- Stabilization I
. . - ...-.- .......at 1961-1990 d
, a Unavoidable burden, due climate
Burden, b, not to pre-2000 climate change I
climate change b
Past To Future Tx
Source: Figures taken from a presentation given by Tony McMichael 'Estimating the Climate Attributable Burden of Disease' NCEPH 2nd
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
Range of relative risks, for each of the 3 emissions scenarios
Region Unmitigated Stab 750 Stab 550
African region ( 1.00- 1.17) ( 1.00- 1.11 ) ( 1.00- 1.09 )
Eastern Mediterranean region ( 1.00- 1.43) ( 1.00- 1.27) ( 1.00- 1.09 )
Latin American, Caribbean region ( 1.00- 1.28) ( 1.00- 1.18) ( 1.00- 1.15 )
South-East Asian region ( 1.00- 1.02 ) ( 1.00- 1.01 ) ( 1.00- 1.01 )
Western Pacific region* ( 1.00- 1.83 ) ( 1.00- 1.53 ) ( 1.00- 1.43 )
Developed countries ( 1.00- 1.27) ( 1.00- 1.33 ) ( 1.00- 1.52)
* without developed countries # and Cuba
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/31/: accessed August 20, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .