The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change Page: 10
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The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Table 4. Malnourished country group and climate change for approx 3C warming in the 2080s
Group Population Proportion of Number of Number of Impact
population countries in group countries
I 2.1 billion 12% 28 11 -10% decrease in
5-20% Includes China cereal production.
undernourished China gains
II 1.5 billion 25% 27 19 Food deficit
20-35% Includes India with with over 80% of doubled
undernourished 60% of the undernourished
III 440 million 50% 23 10 Decrease in
More than 35% Most sub-Saharan production
undernourished African countries 6 gain
Source: Hare (2003). Compiled from Fischer et al. (2001).
Based on the future climate scenario of 30C warming by the 2080s the majority of developed countries
will experience negative impacts on cereal production. According to the ECHAM4 climate scenario,
30C warming by the 2080s results in projected declines in cereal production, although at a world
average level the volume of production is estimated to be sufficient to meet future needs. Developed
countries as a whole are projected to experience a small loss in rain-fed cereal production. Within this
group 17 developed countries gain, though only two countries, Russia and Canada, enjoy 90% of the
gain. The majority of the group, encompassing 60% of the population of the developed country group,
are projected to lose under this scenario of a 30C temperature rise by the 2080s (Fischer et al. 2001).
The effects are more severe for developing countries, as shown in the table below, where three climate
models all predict that 3 billion or more people in developing countries will suffer significant
reductions in cereal production. These badly affected countries will lose 5% or more of cereal
production from the 3C rise.
Sixty five developing countries are projected to experience agricultural production losses valued at
US$56 billion in 1995 terms. These losses equate to 16% of the agricultural GDP of these countries
(Fischer et al. 2001). Africa appears to be the biggest loser in these scenarios, with 29 countries
projected to suffer production losses. Kenya and South Africa are, however, projected to gain
substantially from climate change. In Asia, China gains substantially whilst India loses (Fischer et al.
2001). Overall Fischer et al. (2001) identify 40 "losing countries" with a total population close to 2
billion and an undernourished group of about 450 million. In these countries the gap between food
production and supply is projected to double under climate change, "drastically" increasing the
number suffering from under nourishment (Fischer et al. 2001).
Table 5. Developing country changes in rain fed cereal production potential 2080s for three
Climate Number of countries Projected population 2080 Change in cereal production potential
Model (billions) (million tons)
Ga N L G N L G N L Total
ECHAM4 40 34 43 3.1 0.9 3.7 142 -2 -117 23
HADCM2 52 27 38 3.2 1.2 3.3 207 3 -273 -63
CGCM1 25 26 66 1.1 1.1 5.5 39 3 -268 -226
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005
Source: Fischer et al. (2002). Notes: a. G = countries gaining +5% or more; N = small change of -5 to +5%; L = countries losing- 5% or
more. This tables shows the number of developing countries projected to experience gains, no change or losses in cereal production potential
on current cultivated land and potentially cultivatable and in the 2080s. ECHAM 4 refers to the AOGCM of the Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology, HadCM2 to that for the Hadley Centre in the UK and CGCM1 to that of the Canadian Climate Modeling Centre.
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Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change, text, September 2005; Oxford, England. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/m1/21/: accessed October 23, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .