Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage Page: 40
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100% Q
90%
o 80%
0 70%
I
S60%
0
- 50%
40%
30%
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-- --- - Baseline o Reference 20C Draft compatible reductions
Source: POLES, PRIMES, GAINS.
A further strengthening of EU greenhouse gas target, that could deliver internal reductions by
2020 at a higher level than the reference case (which achieves the -20% target internally) is
more in line with a 2C compatible scenario. This would also maintain incentives for further
innovation in low carbon technologies beyond renewable energy (e.g. efficiency technologies,
CCS etc.).
It needs to be stressed that only internal emissions are considered in the above figure.
Emission targets for developed countries need to be rather in the order of -80% to -95% to be
compatible with a 2C compatible pathway. Figure 10 gives the example of a target pathway
for the EU of -95% by 2050 compared to 1990 and thus gives an indication of the resulting
use of international crediting mechanisms is taken into account. Furthermore it also
demonstrates the type of increased reductions that would be necessary after 2030 if present
legislation is not adapted and the EU's internal reductions would need to catch up only after
2030.
Figure 10: Short term EU emission profile compared to 2C compatible long term targetEN 40 EN
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European Commission. Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage, text, 2010; Brussels, Belgium. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29324/m1/41/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .