Defense Acquisitions: Charting a Course for Improved Missile Defense Testing Page: 10 of 15
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Other Consequences
of Less Productive
Testing
Overall Performance of
BMDS Can Not Yet Be
AssessedIn addition to delaying progress on individual elements, testing problems
have had other consequences for BMDS. Specifically, the reduced
productivity of testing has delayed understanding the overall performance
of BMDS, production and fielding have in some cases gotten ahead of
testing, and declarations of capabilities ready for fielding have been made
based on fewer tests and less modeling and simulation than planned.
The overall performance of the BMDS cannot yet be assessed because
MDA lacks a fully accredited end-to-end model and simulation capability
and, according to the BMDS Operational Test Agency, it will not have that
capability until 2011 at the earliest. The lack of sufficient flight test data
has inhibited the validation of the models and simulations needed for the
ground tests and the simulation. MDA's modeling and simulation program
enables it to assess the capabilities and limitations of how BMDS performs
under a wider variety of conditions than can be accomplished through the
limited number of flight tests conducted. Flight tests alone are insufficient
because they only demonstrate a single collection data point of element
and system performance. Flight tests are, however, an essential tool used
to both validate performance of the BMDS and to anchor the models and
simulations to ensure they accurately reflect real performance. Computer
models of individual elements replicate how those elements function.
These models are then aggregated into various combinations that simulate
the BMDS engagement of enemy ballistic missiles.
Developing an end-to-end system-level model and simulation has been
difficult. MDA's first effort to bring together different element models and
simulations to produce a fully accredited, end-to-end model and
simulation was for the first annual performance assessment of the fielded
BMDS configuration in 2007. Performance Assessment 2007 was
unsuccessful primarily because of inadequate data, particularly flight test
data, for verification and validation to support accreditation. Instead,
Performance Assessment 2007 used several models and simulations that
represented different aspects of the BMD system and were not fully
integrated. Consequently, acting on a joint recommendation between MDA
and the Operational Test Agency, MDA officials cancelled the 2008
performance assessment in April 2008 because of developmental risks
associated with modeling and simulations, focusing instead on testing and
models for Performance Assessment 2009.
According to the BMDS Operational Test Agency's January 2009 Modeling
and Simulation accreditation report, confidence in MDA's Modeling and
Simulation efforts remains low although progress was made during the
year. Out of 40 models, the BMDS Operational Test Agency recommendedGAO-09-403T
Page 8
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United States. Government Accountability Office. Defense Acquisitions: Charting a Course for Improved Missile Defense Testing, text, February 25, 2009; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc290717/m1/10/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.