A Framework to Simulate and Visualize Epidemics Side: 1 of 1
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A FRAMEWORK TO SIMULATE Al
UNIVERSITY Center for ComputationaL Epidemic
OF NORTH TEXAS
THE UNIVERSITY CF NC
.Public health planners need an understanding of how disease SEIR Model
.outbreaks propagate in different populations to formulate Porsino
.e f f e c t i v e c o n t r o l s t r a t e g i e s . T o t h i s e n d , a f r a m e w o r k t o s i m u l a t em o i g e cinad v s a i en ft o ud s a e e pei s i n aou li n ws( S, Eo e dE
..created. Contacts between individuals drive the spread of . diagram below.
~~~. .. ...... ......
. . infectious disease outbreaks. Since actual behavior patterns of
. . the population are unknown, the likelihood of a simulated
. . contact between two individuals is determined by demographic S
. . similarities and geographic proximity. Geographic spread of the
. . outbreak is visualized using a color coded map to represent.
i. demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau are used in the T
" " ""sim u la tio n to fa c ilita te e x p lo ra tio n of o u tb re a k p ro p a g a tio n inp o p ulati o n d enre al p
. . stratifiedintode gpohirop.cniv
" gou aelasiie itoon o te "isas
M. " OTIVATI ' O N Pl . " e"I o l . . " o " o puL ati"o Distribuo Mo eL . . " o " o
.:ulck ofheable histoericaleda an ndrutnderrring of ow disease SEIR Mode I
-.IProgression ofth dies wii ea ind
. . diseases complicate planning public health planning.
"".. 6 5
- What factors do we need to account for when buiLding an Block Biock2 Biocki
epidemic spread modeL? Census Blocks
...: Non-uniform distribution of population over a geographic Global withinage
region. Global outside a
. Differences in daily habits and social interactions of
. . different demographic groups.
. Computational overhead - if it takes too long to get results, Spread of disease is modeled by means o
. the model is impractical. between demographic groups in the differ
::.. Infectious contacts can either be local (w
.-.. global (between different blocks).
,'... VisuaLization .Contacts are generated between population
'.I.&, .,Vi',sualization , I...4 .... .. .
ND VISUALIZE EPIDEI
Logy and Response AnaLysis
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .census blo.
e tats uscptileoutbreak. T
(R?) as shown in theapekan
s with different
(, individuals are
als belonging to each
states S, E, I, or P.
Contact Generation ModeL
. .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . .
Under S EI RSEIR
20 -"1 II
i I i i i I I I I
II I I I I I I I
Over EI R SEI R
65 , , ,
Block 1 Block 2
' group Local within age group
-------- Local outside age group
f infectious contacts
rent census blocks.
ithin a single block) or
)n groups on the basis of:
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Mikler, Armin R.; O'Neill, Marty; Helsing, Joseph; Camp, Taylor & Indrakanti, Saratchandra. A Framework to Simulate and Visualize Epidemics, poster, June 21, 2013; (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc172337/m1/1/: accessed July 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT College of Engineering.