Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

This article aims to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explain the dynamic patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB) mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA.

Physical Description

11 p.

Creation Information

Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhiliang & Gong, Peng September 29, 2014.

Context

This article is part of the collection entitled: UNT Scholarly Works and was provided by UNT College of Engineering to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this article can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this article or its content.

Authors

Publisher

Provided By

UNT College of Engineering

The UNT College of Engineering strives to educate and train engineers and technologists who have the vision to recognize and solve the problems of society. The college comprises six degree-granting departments of instruction and research.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this article. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Degree Information

Description

This article aims to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explain the dynamic patterns of mountain pine beetle (MPB) mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA.

Physical Description

11 p.

Notes

Abstract: The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001e2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006-2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

Source

  • Applied Geography, 2014. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this article in the Digital Library or other systems.

Publication Information

  • Publication Title: Applied Geography
  • Volume: 55
  • Page Start: 165
  • Page End: 175
  • Peer Reviewed: Yes

Collections

This article is part of the following collection of related materials.

UNT Scholarly Works

Materials from the UNT community's research, creative, and scholarly activities and UNT's Open Access Repository. Access to some items in this collection may be restricted.

What responsibilities do I have when using this article?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this article.

Creation Date

  • September 29, 2014

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Aug. 30, 2018, 9:08 a.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this article last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 3
Total Uses: 3

Interact With This Article

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

International Image Interoperability Framework

IIF Logo

We support the IIIF Presentation API

Liang, Lu; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Chen, Yanlei; Zhu, Zhiliang & Gong, Peng. Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains, article, September 29, 2014; Amsterdam, The Netherlands. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1234364/: accessed September 24, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT College of Engineering.