Light truck forecasts

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Description

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of ... continued below

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Pages: 52

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Liepins, G.E. September 1, 1979.

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Description

The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.

Physical Description

Pages: 52

Notes

Dep. NTIS, PC A04/MF A01.

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  • Report No.: ORNL/TM-6450
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-26
  • DOI: 10.2172/6019421 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 6019421
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1096017

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • September 1, 1979

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Feb. 18, 2018, 3:59 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • May 15, 2018, 1:44 p.m.

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Liepins, G.E. Light truck forecasts, report, September 1, 1979; Tennessee. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1096017/: accessed August 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.