Statistically based uncertainty analysis for ranking of component importance in the thermal-hydraulic safety analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used to help determine the importance of components and phenomena in thermal-hydraulic safety analyses of nuclear reactors. The AHP results are based, in part on expert opinion. Therefore, it is prudent to evaluate the uncertainty of the AHP ranks of importance. Prior applications have addressed uncertainty with experimental data comparisons and bounding sensitivity calculations. These methods work well when a sufficient experimental data base exists to justify the comparisons. However, in the case of limited or no experimental data the size of the uncertainty is normally made conservatively large. Accordingly, the author has ... continued below

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Pages: (61 p)

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Wilson, G.E. January 1, 1992.

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  • EG & G Idaho
    Publisher Info: EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
    Place of Publication: Idaho Falls, Idaho

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Description

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been used to help determine the importance of components and phenomena in thermal-hydraulic safety analyses of nuclear reactors. The AHP results are based, in part on expert opinion. Therefore, it is prudent to evaluate the uncertainty of the AHP ranks of importance. Prior applications have addressed uncertainty with experimental data comparisons and bounding sensitivity calculations. These methods work well when a sufficient experimental data base exists to justify the comparisons. However, in the case of limited or no experimental data the size of the uncertainty is normally made conservatively large. Accordingly, the author has taken another approach, that of performing a statistically based uncertainty analysis. The new work is based on prior evaluations of the importance of components and phenomena in the thermal-hydraulic safety analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor (ANSR), a new facility now in the design phase. The uncertainty during large break loss of coolant, and decay heat removal scenarios is estimated by assigning a probability distribution function (pdf) to the potential error in the initial expert estimates of pair-wise importance between the components. Using a Monte Carlo sampling technique, the error pdfs are propagated through the AHP software solutions to determine a pdf of uncertainty in the system wide importance of each component. To enhance the generality of the results, study of one other problem having different number of elements is reported, as are the effects of a larger assumed pdf error in the expert ranks. Validation of the Monte Carlo sample size and repeatability are also documented.

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Pages: (61 p)

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OSTI; NTIS; INIS; GPO Dep.

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  • Other: DE92012311
  • Report No.: EGG-NE-10078
  • Grant Number: AC07-76ID01570
  • DOI: 10.2172/5485664 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 5485664
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1093804

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Creation Date

  • January 1, 1992

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Feb. 10, 2018, 10:06 p.m.

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  • June 1, 2018, 1:03 p.m.

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Wilson, G.E. Statistically based uncertainty analysis for ranking of component importance in the thermal-hydraulic safety analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor, report, January 1, 1992; Idaho Falls, Idaho. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1093804/: accessed October 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.