Filling the strategic petroleum reserve: its price and economic effects

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The estimated movements of the economic indicators under the 1989 target plan (with no OPEC retaliation) are small and could be considered almost negligible when viewed against the size of the economy and the error properties inherent in the macroeconomic model. Therefore, it cannot be firmly stated that a significant loss in real output and increases in inflation and unemployment occur in filling the Reserve. Accelerating the fill rate to meet the 1985 Target (without OPEC retaliation) could increase world oil prices from $0.90 to $1.00 above the base case of no Reserve buildup for the year 1980 to 1985. ... continued below

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Pages: 52

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Paul, E.S. March 1, 1980.

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Description

The estimated movements of the economic indicators under the 1989 target plan (with no OPEC retaliation) are small and could be considered almost negligible when viewed against the size of the economy and the error properties inherent in the macroeconomic model. Therefore, it cannot be firmly stated that a significant loss in real output and increases in inflation and unemployment occur in filling the Reserve. Accelerating the fill rate to meet the 1985 Target (without OPEC retaliation) could increase world oil prices from $0.90 to $1.00 above the base case of no Reserve buildup for the year 1980 to 1985. For the same period, this results in an estimated average decrease in real output of 0.6 percent per year below the baseline level for the United States, an increase in the inflation rate by an average of 0.3 percentage points per year, and an increase in the unemployment rate by an average of 0.2 percentage points per year above their baseline values. In the OPEC retaliation scenario, the world oil price is projected to rise immediately by 19.6 percent above its baseline level, and, by 1985, to be 6.1 percent above the baseline level for the 1989 Target, and 8.4 percent for the 1985 Target. The average loss in real output in the United States could be 0.8 percent below the baseline value for the year 1980 to 1985 for 1985 and 1989 Targets. The GNP deflator could be greater by an average of 0.8 percentage points, and the unemployment rate greater by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year when compared with their baseline values.

Physical Description

Pages: 52

Notes

NTIS, PC A04/MF A01.

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  • Report No.: DOE/EIA/AR-0221
  • Grant Number: None
  • DOI: 10.2172/5290757 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 5290757
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1066637

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • March 1, 1980

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Feb. 4, 2018, 10:51 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • March 27, 2018, 6:48 p.m.

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Paul, E.S. Filling the strategic petroleum reserve: its price and economic effects, report, March 1, 1980; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1066637/: accessed August 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.