The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Great Lakes economy: Challenges and opportunities

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This paper deals with the market for SO{sub 2} emission allowances over time and electric utility compliance choices. For currently high emitting plants ( > 2.5 lb SO{sub 2}/MMBtu), the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) provide for about twice as many SO{sub 2} allowances to be issued per year in Phase 1 (1995--1999) than in Phase 2. Also, considering the scrubber incentives in Phase 1, there is likely to be substantial emission banking for use in Phase 2. Allowance prices are expected to increase over time at a rate less than the return on alternative investments, so utilities which ... continued below

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Pages: (13 p)

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Hanson, D.; Molburg, J.; Pandola, G.; Taxon, T.; Lurie, G.; Fisher, R. et al. January 1, 1991.

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Description

This paper deals with the market for SO{sub 2} emission allowances over time and electric utility compliance choices. For currently high emitting plants ( > 2.5 lb SO{sub 2}/MMBtu), the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) provide for about twice as many SO{sub 2} allowances to be issued per year in Phase 1 (1995--1999) than in Phase 2. Also, considering the scrubber incentives in Phase 1, there is likely to be substantial emission banking for use in Phase 2. Allowance prices are expected to increase over time at a rate less than the return on alternative investments, so utilities which are risk neutral or other potential speculators in the allowance market are not expected to bank allowances. The allowances will be banked by risk averse utilities or the utilities may buy forward contracts for SO{sub 2} allowances. However, speculators may play an important role by selling forward contracts for SO{sub 2} allowances to the risk averse utilities. The Argonne Utility Simulation Model (ARGUS) is being revised to incorporate the provisions of the CAAA acid rain title and to simulate SO{sub 2} allowance prices, compliance choices, capacity expansion, system dispatch, fuel use, and emissions. The revised model (ARGUS2) incorporates unit-level performance data and can incorporate unit-specific compliance decisions when these are known. The model has been designed for convenience in analyzing alternatives scenarios (demand growth rates, technology mix, economic parameters, etc). 1 ref., 5 figs.

Physical Description

Pages: (13 p)

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OSTI; NTIS; INIS; GPO Dep.

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  • 13. annual North American conference of the International Association for Energy Economics, Chicago, IL (United States), 18-20 Nov 1991

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  • Other: DE92001920
  • Report No.: ANL/CP-74370
  • Report No.: CONF-911184--5
  • Grant Number: W-31109-ENG-38
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 5081144
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1058629

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  • January 1, 1991

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  • Jan. 22, 2018, 7:23 a.m.

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  • Jan. 30, 2018, 1:06 p.m.

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Hanson, D.; Molburg, J.; Pandola, G.; Taxon, T.; Lurie, G.; Fisher, R. et al. The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and the Great Lakes economy: Challenges and opportunities, article, January 1, 1991; Illinois. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1058629/: accessed October 18, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.