Effects of energy constraints on transportation systems. [Twenty-six papers] Page: 26 of 580

                                
Overall, the expected average annual growth rate for energy consumption by the Residential Sector
from 1976 to 1985 is 1.8 percent without the Plan and 1.2 percent with the Plan. For the individual
energy sources the rates of growth during this period 'are shown in Table 5.
Table 5.--Average Annual Growth Rate of Energy       I
Consumption in the Residential Sector, 1976-85
(Percent)
Energy Source      Without Plan     With Plan
Petroleum               0.2           -1.7
Natural Gas            -0.7            0.1
Electricity             4.1            3.2
. Coal                      -              -
Tables 4 and 5 show that much of the increased energy consumption anticipated in this time period
will be based on electricity. This is true with or without the Plan. In absolute terms, the Plan is
anticipated to reduce energy consumption by 1985 from 32.2 to 30.4 quadrillion Btu--a reduction of 1.8
quadrilliui Btu.
Projected energy consumption in the industrial sector is shown in Table 6.
Table 6.--Industrial Sector Energy Consumption, 1976-85
(Quadrillion Btu)
1985           1985
Energy Source       1976     Without Plan     With Plan
Petroleum            6.4         14.0            8.0
Natural Gas          8.4          9.0            9.0
Electricity 1/       8.7         14.4           14.2
Coal                 3.8          5.4           10.0
Total             27.3         42.8           41.2
1/ Includes Losses incurred in generation
The absolute reduction in anticipated energy consumption in 1985 from implementation of the Plan
would be 1.6,quadrillion Btu. 'The Plan would also occasion a shift from dependence on petroleum to a
very heavy dependence ion coal.
Overall, the expected average annual -growth rate for energy consumption by the Industrial Sector
from 1977 to 1983 is 5.1 percent without the Plan and 4.7 percent with it. For the industrial energy
sources the rates of ,growth during this period :are shown in Table 7.
Table 7.-Avserage Annual Growth Rate of Energy
Consumption 'in the Industrial Sector, 1976-85
(Percent)
1985            1985
Energy Source      'Without Plan     With Plan
Petroleum                9.1            2.5
Natural Gas              0.8            0.8
Electricity              5.7            5.6
Coal                     4.10          11.3
As mentioned previously, petroleum consumption :growth would be reduced sharply by implementation
of the Plan, and coal consumption growth would be sharply accelerated.

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