Early Predictors of Early Freshman Year Attrition in Female Hispanic Students Page: 3
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populations (Venezia et al., 2003). There will be a large, growing population in the state that has
struggled in higher education, and their educational future is critical to increase individual well-
being as well as the social and economic future of Texas. In the progress report (THECB, 2008)
of the Closing the Gaps Plan, the Hispanic population fell "well below" the target set. The report
Hispanic participation [in higher education] grew from 3.7 % of the population in fall
2000 to just 4.0 % in fall 2008. To reach the 2015 target of 5.7 %, Hispanics will need to
enroll another 310,000 (84.3 %) students, a daunting task given their high drop our rates
in high school and economic disadvantage. (p. ii)
Texas, in particular, should be concerned with the rapid growth of the Hispanic
population for both educational and economic reasons. According to the Texas comptroller, by
2040, the non-White population will make up 75% of Texas employees, 80% of public school
students and 70% of university students (Combs, 2006). Murdoch (2009) stated that the
Hispanic population is the only ethnic group projected to increase in elementary and secondary
schools. His study indicated the Hispanic population of this age group will grow from 40% in
2000 to 66% in 2040, a 26% increase. The White student population will decrease from 43.2%
to 19.9% and Black students from 14.4% to 8.3% of the total elementary and secondary schools.
The trend is similar when looking at college enrollment in Texas. Murdoch indicates an increase
in Hispanic enrollment in college during this same time period, 2000-2040. According to his
data, in 2000, the percentage of Hispanic college enrollment made up 26% and is predicted to
double by 2040. At the same time, the White and Black college enrolled population is expected
to decrease by 19% and 2% respectively. With such a large number of Hispanic students ideally
enrolling in higher education, improvements in retention and graduation rates are critical for the
state of Texas. For a strong workforce and economic base in Texas, the education of the ever
increasing Hispanic population must be addressed.
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Speed, Heather Faye. Early Predictors of Early Freshman Year Attrition in Female Hispanic Students, dissertation, August 2011; Denton, Texas. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc103396/m1/14/: accessed February 27, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; .