Potential markets for devices using $sup 252$Cf Page: 4 of 20
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POTENTIAL MARKETS FOR DEVICES USING 262Cf
INTRODUCTION
This paper contains an estimate of the potential applications for .6Cf
from 1974 to 1980. The estimated numbers of devices and the associated busi-
ness activity are derived from a survey made in December 1973 March 1974 of
representatives of 28 industrial, educational, and governmental organizations.
This report is an updated version of the anticipated market for devices using
.26Cf that was presented at the 262Cf Utilization Meeting in New York City in
March 1973.
The information was obtained to assist the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission
in planning future requirements for- Cf. The reader should remember that
the data represents only a consensus of informed opinion, and should be under-
stood and used as such.
SUMARY
The outlook for applications of 252Cf is increasingly optimistic. Sub-
stantial business opportunities for systems manufacturers and encapsulators
of 262Cf are expected in the coming years. The business value of 62Cf de-
vices should increase from $2.3 million in 1974 to $13 million in 1980. The
cumulative 1974-1980 U.S. totals involve the sale of more than 1000 devices
for a total of $49 million. The foreign market may equal or exceed these
figures.
Twenty-five end-uses in eight market segments are now recognized. On-
stream process control and nuclear materials assay are the largest market seg-
ments, and are expected to command more than half of the cumulative 1974-1980
market for 262Cf devices, as shown in Table I.
The anticipated annual numbers of devices and associated business values
are shown in Figures 1 and 2. The solid lines represent the 0.5 probability
values, and the upper and lower edges of the shaded.zones represent the 0.25
and 0.75 probability levels. The anticipated numbers of devices in each mar-
ket segment are shown similarly in Figures 3 to 10.
FORECASTING TECHNIQUE -
The growth curves of potential: 26Cf applications were obtained by modi-
fying the results on the 1973'survey*in the light of progress made in the
past year. The shape of the curves and the probability limits indicate that
the respondents' opinions were frequently more optimistic than those reported
in the 1973 forecast.
* "Potential for 262Cf Applications." Presented at the Californium-252
Utilization Meeting, New York City, March 20-21, 1973.-.1 -
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Permar, P.H. Potential markets for devices using $sup 252$Cf, article, October 31, 1974; Country unknown/Code not available. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1019193/m1/4/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.