Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

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In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut ... continued below

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Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian et al. September 1, 2009.

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In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

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  • Journal Name: IEEJ Energy Journal

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  • Report No.: LBNL-3849E
  • Grant Number: DE-AC02-05CH11231
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 986502
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1014920

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  • September 1, 2009

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  • Oct. 14, 2017, 8:36 a.m.

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  • Oct. 18, 2017, 10:09 a.m.

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Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian et al. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation, article, September 1, 2009; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1014920/: accessed September 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.