A Transferrable Belief Model Representation for Physical Security of Nuclear Materials

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This work analyzed various probabilistic methods such as classic statistics, Bayesian inference, possibilistic theory, and Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for the potential insight offered into the physical security of nuclear materials as well as more broad application to nuclear non-proliferation automated decision making theory. A review of the fundamental heuristic and basic limitations of each of these methods suggested that the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions may offer significant capability. Further examination of the various interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, such as random set, generalized Bayesian, and upper/lower probability demonstrate some limitations. Compared to the other heuristics, the transferrable belief ... continued below

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Gerts, David July 1, 2010.

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This work analyzed various probabilistic methods such as classic statistics, Bayesian inference, possibilistic theory, and Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for the potential insight offered into the physical security of nuclear materials as well as more broad application to nuclear non-proliferation automated decision making theory. A review of the fundamental heuristic and basic limitations of each of these methods suggested that the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions may offer significant capability. Further examination of the various interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, such as random set, generalized Bayesian, and upper/lower probability demonstrate some limitations. Compared to the other heuristics, the transferrable belief model (TBM), one of the leading interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, can improve the automated detection of the violation of physical security using sensors and human judgment. The improvement is shown to give a significant heuristic advantage over other probabilistic options by demonstrating significant successes for several classic gedanken experiments.

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  • INMM 2010,Baltimore, MD,07/11/2010,07/15/2010

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  • Report No.: INL/CON-10-17670
  • Grant Number: DE-AC07-05ID14517
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 986939
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1014603

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  • July 1, 2010

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  • Oct. 14, 2017, 8:36 a.m.

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  • Nov. 3, 2017, 5:25 p.m.

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Gerts, David. A Transferrable Belief Model Representation for Physical Security of Nuclear Materials, article, July 1, 2010; Idaho. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1014603/: accessed October 23, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.