Date: February 6, 1996
Creator: Glaser, R.
Description: A methodology is presented that allows the calculation of the probability that any of a particular collection of structures will be hit by an aircraft in a take-off or landing related accident during a specified window of time with a velocity exceeding a given critical value. A probabilistic model is developed that incorporates the location of each structure relative to airport runways in the vicinity; the size of the structure; the sizes, types, and frequency of use of commercial, military, and general aviation aircraft which take-off and land at these runways; the relative frequency of take-off and landing related accidents by aircraft type; the stochastic properties of off-runway crashes, namely impact location, impact angle, impact velocity, and the heading, deceleration, and skid distance after impact; and the stochastic properties of runway overruns and runoffs, namely the position at which the aircraft exits the runway, its exit velocity, and the heading and deceleration after exiting. Relevant probability distributions are fitted from extensive commercial, military, and general aviation accident report data bases. The computer source code for implementation of the calculation is provided.
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