Date: September 1991
Creator: Haslag, Joseph H.; Nieswiadomy, Michael L. & Slottje, Daniel J.
Description: Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and real growth rates in wages. The stationary of these time series has been discussed in the literature. However, since the net discount ratio, (1 + gτ)/(1 + rτ), is a nonlinear transformation, it is not necessarily stationary even if the interest rate and growth rate in wages series are each stationary. On the other hand, the net discount ratio may be stationary even if the interest rate and growth rate series are both non-stationary. The significant finding of this article is that this ratio is stationary. This conclusion appears robust since it holds for at least four different Treasury securities analyzed: three month, six month, one year, and three year. Therefore, a real net discount ratio, (1 + gτ)/(1 + rτ), can be used with confidence in constructing present value forecasts of expected earnings.
Contributing Partner: UNT College of Arts and Sciences