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Rethinking the Study of Conflict and Peace: Making Causal Inferences in Quantitative Conflict and Peace Research: Most research questions and theory in quantitative peace and conflict research are fundamentally causal. However, a large gap exists in the extant literature between research question and research methodology. Not only does most existing methodology fail to achieve what most quantitative peace scholars attempt, but many researchers do not appear to be aware of these limitations. In this dissertation, I outline five key shortcomings within this literature that, left unaddressed, create results that are not informative of the questions quantitative peace researchers are interested in. This dissertation demonstrates solutions addressing these shortcomings with two applied chapters, conducting causal research designs on a study examining the economic impact of United Nations peacekeeping operations and the effect of human rights treaties on repression, respectively. I find that conventionally-established results in the literature change dramatically when exposed to methodological changes informed by the causal inference literature.
The Politics of F. Scott Fizgerald: F. Scott Fitzgerald is valued for his contribution to literary arts, culture and his discussion of the American Dream. I argue that his discussion of the American Dream was a lens through which he gave readers access to political insights and an education about political philosophy, American politics, virtue, and reasoning. The American Dream, at its greatest, for Fitzgerald is a nation building myth but at its lowest is a dull materialistic construct. Throughout his works Fitzgerald connects philosophic ideas to the American Dream in attempts to educate and ennoble his readers. The ability to judge well is a critical piece of self-government that was a focus of Fitzgerald's throughout his body of work. In The Beautiful and Damned, by giving weight to Platonic ideals of beauty and goodness, and Platonic heuristics like the allegory of the cave he attempted to negate the detrimental effects of nihilism in America at his time and after. In The Great Gatsby, by presenting virtue of the contemplative life that could be cultivated by his readers, in his time, and including esoteric teachings on those virtues and values he attempted to negate the detrimental effects of materialism on the American dream. Finally, in The Last Tycoon, by articulating an American alternative to the philosopher-king he put forward a vision of statesmanship that could mitigate the effects of materialism and keep the American Dream alive against a socialist attack.
Promoting Women? Causes and Effects of Gender-Informed Transitional Justice: Quantitative research investigating the causes and subsequent impact of transitional justice practices has further developed thanks to the production of cross-national data on justice practices, namely by the Justice Data Project and the Transitional Justice Research Collaborative. Current work, however, does not consider the role of justice from a feminist perspective. For example, with respect to causes, we know little about whether and how justice processes are gender inclusive, and what the factors lead to gendered inclusion within justice practices. There is also a need for further inquiry to explain how gendered conflict violence, e.g., sexual violence directed at women, influences justice adoption, and if so, whether these justice processes are more likely to be inclusive of women and gendered issues. Regarding justice impact (its post-hoc effects), there is much to know about the implications gendered justice pose for post-violence societies. Moving away from essentialist notions that position men as protectors and women as inherently peaceful and mere victims of abuse, feminist scholars advocate for research to showcase women's agency as security providers in peacebuilding and peacemaking. I introduce a framework to explain how women and gendered issues become integrated into justice practices and evaluate implications that result from these processes. Such a research program is important, if not crucial, to understand the role of women as agents in the development of peace and security in countries with a history of violence and human rights abuse. In doing so, I respond to demands calling for gender perspectives on issues related to security and positive peace, a peace that includes social justice, that can only be achieved by dismantling the unequal power structures of gender, race, and class.
In Search of Audience Costs in International Relations: The Media, Personality, and Public Threats: Audience costs, which are defined as political costs for a leader generated when the leader fails to follow through on international commitments, are an important concept in international relations to understand the causes of war and peace. However, despite its prominence, evidence for audience costs is mixed at best. In this dissertation, by conducting a series of survey experiments in the United States, I examine a variety of causal mechanisms and observable implications of audience cost models. In Chapter 2 I explore the role of the media. The result of a survey experiment shows that the media's negative framing of a leader's backing down from a threat increases audience costs, but only after subjects are informed of the leader's justification. Chapter 3 tests the idea that the magnitude of audience costs depends on an individual's personality traits. A pilot experiment using a sample of undergraduate students does not support this expectation. Lastly, I compare the credibility of public versus private threats in Chapter 4. A conjoint survey experiment demonstrates that as many proponents of audience cost theory suggest, public threats are perceived as more credible, and the sources of their credibility are domestic audience costs.
Protesting the "Right" Way: Exploring Respectability Politics and Support for Black Lives Matter: Black Lives Matter gained elevated levels of support following the death of George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis Police Department. Despite temporary elevated levels of support, large segments of the populous are still reluctant and critical of the movement. This work aims to assess what role notions of respectability politics play in Black American support of Black Lives Matter. Respectability politics is consistently weaponized against members of oppressed groups including racial minorities, women, the LGBTQ community, and their related social movements. Analyzing the role of respectability politics in this context is a needed addition to the scholarly literature regarding social movement mobilization, as well as the interdisciplinary literature that has previously examined respectability in myriad forms. I hypothesize that unwillingness to support Black Lives Matter will be dependent on respectability politics as it relates to the perceived comportment and behavior police violence victims. This work included experimental analysis of the perceived respectability of a police brutality victim's "respectable" behavior being varied in the experimental treatment. I found support for my primary hypotheses that adherence to respectability politics correlated with diminished support for Black Lives Matter.
This is What Democracy Looks Like: Racial Identity, Anger, and the Political Behavior of White Women: What are the relationships between strength of racial identification, anger, and the political behavior of white women? Building on the literature on white identity politics and anger in political behavior, I argue that white identity and anger have a conditional relationship that leads to changes in multiple aspects of white women's political behavior. This dissertation uses the 2016 American National Election Survey and the 2016 Comprehensive Multiracial Post-election Survey to explore these associations. The findings show that there is a relationship between white racial identity conditioned on anger or threat and the strength of white women's partisanship and their issue opinions. When there is no anger or threat measure included, the relationship with political participation is weaker than expected which supports the importance of anger and its predecessor threat in the political behavior of white women. Overall, this dissertation expands the areas of white political behavior that are associated with strength of racial identity and anger as well as finding these relationships specifically with white women.
Concerning Millennials: Exploring Generational Cohort Effects on Racial Linked Fate, Religion and Politics, and Support for American Civil Liberities: This research examines the political implications of the Millennial generation on American politics by exploring the interaction of generational cohort with race, social issues, and civil liberties. Relying on the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey and the 2018 General Social Survey, I examine (1) Millennial attitudes toward race and ethnicity by looking specifically at racial linked fate, (2) how Millennials interact with race and evangelical Christianity and how this interaction influences social policy preferences, and (3) how generational factors influence Millennial attitudes toward American civil liberties. I find that there are measurable effects of generational cohorts on the predicted value of Linked Fate for racial minority groups in the United States. My results suggest that Millennials are significantly more likely to have higher levels of linked fate for Latino and Asian Americans. However, I do not find sufficient evidence to suggest that African Americans' level of linked fate is affected either positively or negatively for Millennials. Second, for the investigation on social policy, the results suggest that those who sit at the intersection of the three groups- the Latino-Millennial evangelicals- hold policy preferences that contrast from those who are solely either Latino, Millennial, or evangelical. Latino-Millennial evangelicals are significantly more likely to hold liberal policy preferences on issues of climate change but more conservative attitudes on aid to the poor. Lastly, on issues of American civil liberties, the results indicate that Millennials are far more likely to support free speech (even for controversial actors), than both the Boomer generation and Generation X. Millennials are also more likely to oppose governmental intervention in religion and are significantly more likely to support abortion rights for women.
Ethnic Parties: Their Emergence, Survival, and Impact: This dissertation examines the emergence of ethnic parties, their survival in the political system, and their impact on the governance practices. While scholars have long debated the impact of ethnic parties on state-building and democratization process, few works have empirically examined their behavior in the political system. Empirical research on ethnic parties is limited to single countries or regions -- Latin America, Eastern Europe, or a few countries including India. Firstly, this dissertation extends the research on ethnic parties to include another South Asian Country – Nepal. Secondly, research on ethnic parties has been hampered by the lack of cross-sectional data on ethnic parties. This dissertation employs new datasets on the electoral performance of ethnic parties, making use of the newly available resource. Employing both qualitative and quantitative techniques, this dissertation is built around three empirical chapters. Firstly, it argues that strategic interactions between major parties and ethnic groups, among others, determine why some ethnic groups successfully form their own parties and others do not. Secondly, it argues that the factors that are responsible for the emergence of ethnic parties are hardly sufficient for the survival of these parties in the long run and shows that ethnic parties' access to state resources is a major factor that can explain the variation in their survival. And thirdly, it argues and empirically shows that support from ethnic groups to political parties does not necessarily lead to higher levels of corruption as scholars have often argued. The parties that are overwhelmingly supported by ethnic groups increase the level of regime corruption, while the parties that have large coalitions of voters including ethnic groups do not.
The Politics of Fiscal Federalism and Building the Foundations of the Putin Regime in Russia, 2007-2013: Putin's military forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, sparking a renewed academic interest in Russia's current regime. Several scholars suggested that a critical period in the construction of the current regime occurred between 1999-2013 during Putin's first two presidencies followed by the Medvedev presidency. This is when the basic institutions of the current Russian political system were changed to recentralize state authority and prevent Russian Federation from looming disintegration. One such institution was the budgetary process. Signed into law in 1998, Russian Budget Code established how funds were disbursed from the "center" to the federal "subjects" and other entities. Many scholars have pointed out that one specific mechanism, namely "Intergovernmental Transfers", can be used to achieve the political goals of a regime by rewarding supporters, swinging the competitive electoral districts, or appeasing the opposition or separatist regions. The goal of this dissertation to investigate under what conditions a non-democratic regime, like Russia, uses these strategies for political effect? Do those strategies change over time? In this work, I develop a basic theoretical framework outlining such conditions and test it using the municipal-level data gathered from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service and Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Politics in Uniforms: Military Influence in Politics and Conflictual State Behavior: This dissertation examines how the state-building process relates to civil-military relations and how political influence of the military affects state's conflict behavior. By doing so, this study aims to introduce a nuanced consideration of the well-known civil-military problematique, which might be summarized as the threat the military can constitute to the polity that it is created to protect. I treat this paradox by addressing the following research questions: Why do some militaries have a qualitatively higher level of influence in politics than others? Second, how does the military's influence in politics affect a state's domestic conflict behavior? And third, how does it affect state's international conflict behavior? I develop a theory that when the military is heavily involved in the state-building process, it gains an unusual place within politics, gets itself imprinted in the DNA of the state, and gains undue political power. I name such militaries as state-builder militaries and argue that such states experience qualitatively different civil-military relations, in which the military acts as an extremely Praetorian institution. I argue that state-builder militaries would be able to insulate their political power from the democratization process that the country might experience and behave as persistent interveners in politics. I also argue that state-builder militaries would not want to retreat to their barracks as easily as predicted by the mainstream literature on military regimes. These arguments also contribute to the state-building scholarship. I present this theory by process-tracing the Turkish Military's longstanding political influence over the last 150 years. For my second and third research questions, I look at the price states pay when their militaries have undue influence on political decision-making. I argue that secessionist movements will be deterred from the military's political power and would refrain from engaging in violent secessionist strategies. I also contend that politically powerful …
Premigratory Experiences and the Political Effects of Suitcase Socialization: Do the experiences that an immigrant faces in their country of origin affect the political attitudes and behavior when an immigrant is in their country of residence? Although there is a considerable amount of work exploring the political behavior of racial and ethnic minorities, some work on immigrant political behavior, and some work that that connects premigratory experiences with post migration political behavior, there is relatively little work that examines premigratory experiences with autocracy, corruption, and violence and how that affects the political behavior of immigrants. In this project I observe how experiences with corruption, political violence, and conflict has an affect on political trust, political behavior, and social trust among immigrants that have experienced such events.
To Constrain or Tame: Aristotle and Machiavelli on Demagogy: What defines demagogues and what sort of threat do they pose to democracy? Contemporary politics has recently witnessed a rise in demagogic leaders around the globe. Following this trend, many notable scholars have sought to better define the ancient term and to provide politics with advice on how to handle them. However, demagogy is hard to define, and research is divided over what truly makes for a demagogue. Scholars tend to either focus on the intention, the tools, or the effects of leaders to categorize demagogy. While they might disagree over which aspect of demagogy is most salient, they are more unanimous in their claims regarding the threat that demagogy poses to democracy. Before we outright condemn demagogy, I argue that we should better understand the phenomenon and its relationship to democracy. This dissertation turns to Machiavelli and Aristotle in order to better grasp and better define the phenomenon of demagogy. I first build a concept of demagogy through Aristotle's Politics and then use that concept to detect a similar phenomenon within the work of Machiavelli. In many ways Aristotle and Machiavelli affirm the claims of contemporary scholars, especially regarding the threat that demagogy poses to democracy. According to both thinkers, demagogy involves the use of factions, class enmities, and the corruption of law. Possibly more troubling, both show how the methods of demagogy remain an ever-present possibility to democratic rule. Nevertheless, Aristotle and Machiavelli disagree with contemporary scholarship on how to address the problem of demagogy. Rather than seek out ways to constrain the demagogue, the two philosophers dedicate themselves to providing an education to demagogues. Even more surprisingly, this dissertation argues that both have covertly tried to persuade others to adopt the methods of demagogy for the sake of better preserving democracy and perhaps even to improve upon …
Elite Management Strategies under Dictatorships and Their Determinants: This dissertation attempts to uncover systematic patterns regarding elite management in dictatorships. To do so, it describes how dictators manage their elites and what factors determine the outcomes of their decision. Although considerable literature has examined the various structural features of dictatorships and has identified different elite management strategies to explain the persistence of dictatorships, few, if any, have empirically tested any of the theoretical propositions generated by this increasingly large body of literature. This dissertation is the first empirical attempt to explore the elite management strategies of various dictatorships, ranging from the individual case of the most extreme dictatorship (North Korea) as well as different kinds of military dictatorships (South Korea), and global patterns of autocratic regimes. To address the main research question, "what determines the choice of the dictator's elite management strategies?" this dissertation identifies three key factors - dictator, elites, and structure. The relationship between dictators and elites is basically hostile. Conflicts between actors over power acquisition often emerge in violent ways. Nevertheless, dictators do not always treat elites with repression. They sometimes make efforts to embrace and cooperate with the other elites. The variation of their strategies toward elites is determined by various conditions. The results of this dissertation indicate that three factors of dictators, elites, and the environments surrounding them significantly affect the elite management strategies under dictatorships. The main theoretical arguments of this dissertation are supported by the evidence in the three empirical chapters of this dissertation.
Third Party Actor Interests, Conflict Management Approaches, and Intrastate Conflict Outcomes: This dissertation examines the role of third parties in civil war mediation and peacekeeping efforts. The dissertation makes two primary contributions to the literature. First, it builds upon existing literature by applying state-level arguments of third party involvement in mediation and peacekeeping efforts to the United Nations Security Council and regional IGOs. Second, it investigates the role of communication and coordination between third parties in their conflict management efforts.
The Strategic Use of Religion in a Secular State: The Impact of Religious Organizations on Japanese Politics: How do religions and nationalism interact in secular democracies? With its history of nationalism based on religious ideologies, and the subsequent forced separation of state and religion, Japan provides a valuable case to examine how religion and nationalism interact and affect the politics of a secular state. The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and synthesize the divide within the literature regarding the idea that Shinto is fundamentally nationalist in nature. Due to Shinto's historical ties to Japanese nationalism, it is clear that religion and nationalism played a role in Japanese politics in the past. However, with Japan's transition to democracy and the constitutional provision of the separation between religion and state, religion's effect on nationalism in Japan has become blurred contemporarily. In order to explore these relationships between Shinto, nationalism, and Japanese politics, I investigate how political groups and religious organizations influence nationalist sentiment in political institutions and public opinion in Japan using the Japanese Value Orientations survey and an original dataset. I find that even though the evidence is mounting against the accuracy around the idea of State Shinto and the fundamentally nationalist nature of Shinto, the narrative persists. The existence of nationalist circles perpetuates these narratives, regardless of the truthfulness of the association between Shinto and nationalism because this narrative serves as a benefit to some groups. Shinto may not be automatically nationalist, but there are still nationalistic Shinto practitioners. The description of Shinto as inherently nationalist is not likely to go away while that description still serves a purpose.
Francis Bacon's New Atlantis: The Quiet Revolution of Science, Religion, and Politics: Francis Bacon (1561-1626) is recognized as a founder of the modern scientific project and a forerunner of the modern era of political thought. He advocated the development of an active science that would enable human beings to control nature in order to relieve man's estate. To accomplish this, Bacon argues that we must reconstruct all arts and sciences upon a more solid foundation. In reconstructing the arts and sciences, Bacon subtly changes the meaning of foundational religious, political, and scientific notions in order to better suit his project of progress. As the inheritors of his vision, turning to Bacon helps recover foundational considerations that have been forgotten as a result of his success. This dissertation approaches Bacon's thought through an analysis of his New Atlantis, a fable that envisions the completion of his project. I also turn to his other political, scientific, and religious works as appropriate to supply what is omitted in the fable. I find that although his revision of religious, scientific, and political foundations is conducted subtly they are nevertheless revolutionary, and essential for preparing the various outlooks that characterize the modern world.
Foreign Direct Investment and Sustainable Peace During/After Civil Conflicts: This dissertation examines the impact of FDI on peace in civil conflict-experienced states. While economic grievances have often been pointed out as a major cause of civil war within the literature, scholarship on post-conflict peace has focused mainly on political settlements, such as one-sided victories or power sharing, largely ignoring the importance of economic conditions. Thus, this dissertation aims to examine how FDI can affect sustainable peace in conflict-experienced states in terms of prevention of conflict recurrence and regime stability. FDI can be conducive to peace during/after civil conflicts, as it can bring capital which can be used for economic reconstruction and development in conflict-experienced states. Furthermore, this dissertation focuses on the impact of bilateral FDI. When a third party intervenes in a conflict management process and the third party has a great deal of economic interaction with the conflict experienced state, this economic interdependency will affect the third party's motivation to make the conflict-experienced state stable. It also provides third-party with greater leverage over peace efforts. Eventually, this third-party leverage will affect peace during/after civil conflicts. This dissertation is built around three interrelated empirical chapters: (1) determinants of FDI in conflict-experienced states, (2) the impact of FDI on conflict recurrence, and (3) the impact of FDI on regime stability. U.S. and Chinese FDI are used as focal cases for the analysis. This is because they have the most powerful economic and military influences in the world. As a result, this dissertation examines the impact of U.S. and Chinese FDI on peace in civil conflict-experienced states.
Collaboration among Conflict Management Practitioners and Human Rights Advocacy Groups: In a civil war, conflict management practitioners are concerned with bringing the conflict to an end and providing security for civilians. Similarly, human rights advocacy groups are also concerned with minimizing civilian harm. Given the similar intentions of these actors in civil war states, this dissertation explores under what circumstances conflict management practitioners and human rights advocacy groups collaborate. First, I compare to what extent mediation and peacekeeping cases differ with regards to showing signs of interaction; second, I compare how the level of interaction changes depending on whether peacekeeping missions are deployed by the United Nations or regional intergovernmental organizations. I find that human rights groups are more likely to interact with peacekeeping missions, especially when the missions are deployed by the United Nations. Moreover, I analyze to what extent the interaction between human rights groups and peacekeeping operations impacts how human rights groups carry out their advocacy efforts. The findings reveal that the way human rights groups use their advocacy efforts depend on whether the third parties providing peacekeeping operations respond to their requests.
The Perils of Poor Community-Police Relations: Exploring the Link Between Race, Police Perceptions, and Public Trust in Government: This research examines the political implications of community-police relations in the United States by exploring the link between race, perceptions of police performance, and trust in government. Relying on survey data, I examine these relationships for Blacks, Latinos, Asians, and Whites. In addition to examining the broader relationship between community-police relations and institutional trust, this dissertation examines (1) how police perceptions influence individuals' comfort in contacting the police, (2) how police violence and police perceptions influence trust in government, and (3) the effectiveness of community-oriented policing in building community-police relations and increasing trust in government. First, I find that these relationships are conditional on race and ethnicity. Black respondents, who are more likely to experience negative interactions with the police and who are less likely to have positive perceptions of the police, are less comfortable contacting them. Second, while police violence does not have a significant effect on public trust in government, police perceptions and perceptions of discrimination do. Respondents that perceive the police to be performing well and who do not believe their own racial group is being discriminated against, are more likely to express trust in government. Finally, I find that community-oriented policing has the potential to both improve perceptions of the police and increase trust in government. The central goal of this dissertation is to highlight the role that community-police relations have in influencing American politics and to emphasize the importance of exploring potential solutions to declining trust in the police.
This Land is My Land: The Dynamic Relationship between Migration and the Far-Right: This dissertation examines the dynamic intersections of the relationship between migration and the far-right through three empirical, stand-alone chapters. The first substantive chapter re-evaluates existing theories of far-right support using a novel theory and comprehensive dataset to assess how immigration opinion and immigration levels interact to shape individual far-right support. The findings suggest that increases in asylum-based migration are associated with increased far-right voting, but that this is effect is mainly observed in those with negative or neutral opinions toward immigration. The second substantive chapter examines the other side of this relationship by analyzing the impact of far-right electoral and legislative success on asylum-recognition rates in EU member states. The results of empirical analyses show that when far-right parties gain legislative seats, the expected rate of asylum approvals decreases. This suggests that far-right parties in legislatures have measurable effects on migration outcomes. Finally, the third substantive chapter uses original field research to assess how far-right politics impacts the lived experiences of immigrants in France and Switzerland, relying on a small survey and interviews conducted in the field. The results show that immigrants are generally aware of far-right parties and distrustful toward them. However, undocumented migrants and asylees are among the most negatively impacted by far-right activity. Overall, this dissertation moves beyond the entrenched debate of how migration does or does not facilitate far-right support and contributes to the academic understanding of how migration and far-right politics interact.
Political Stability in Xenophon's Cyropaedia: While there have been several rich studies that have provided insight into the teachings of Xenophon that emerge from a careful reading of the Cyropaedia, the problem of reconciling the apparent good rule of Cyrus with the ruin of his empire persists. I argue that this problem can be reconciled by focusing on the problem that Xenophon initially informs us he is interested in, political stability.
Does Gender Representation Matter? Gender, Descriptive and Substantive Representation, and Women-Friendly Districts: This dissertation considers how district-level demographic factors favorable to women congressional candidates facilitate substantive representation of women's interests. I contribute to the existing research by linking the literature on women candidate emergence and electoral success with that on descriptive and substantive representation. Beyond simply asking whether and how women in Congress represent women's interests, I argue that the demographic characteristics of districts in which women are more likely to run and win public office also put women representing those districts in Congress in better position to cultivate feminist homestyles and substantively represent women's interests through legislative behavior. I examine whether women representatives in women-friendly districts are more likely than men representing similar districts, or women in less women-friendly districts, to sponsor legislation in women's issue areas, sponsors women's issue earmarks, and defect from party in women's issue roll-call votes. Overall, I find general support for my theory that district-level factors contribute to observed gender differences in legislative behavior in women's issue areas.
Interstate Influence Strategies in Border Crises: 1918-2015: Within interstate militarized disputes, states use different kinds of influence strategies, like bullying, reciprocating, and trial-and-error. My dissertation examines state influence strategies within border disputes. This context serves as a hard test which could testify if state behaviors in world politics are mainly driven by the salience of contested issues. Or other factors, like leader militarized backgrounds (e.g., participating in rebellions or military service), may also at work. On the other hand, focusing on state influence strategies could be a promising direction to investigate the dynamics of border disputes, like border crisis outcomes. My dissertation contains three chapters. The first chapter explores the rationales behind state choices of influence strategies in border crises by focusing on leaders and their militarized experiences. The second chapter focuses on the influence strategy's short-term effect by examining how do hey influence border crisis outcomes? The third chapter examines the influence strategy's long-term impact by investigating how do they affect the durability of border claims? My dissertation has some important findings. First, leader militarized backgrounds influence state choices of influence strategies. Second, bullying strategies create escalations, which make border crises more likely to end in stalemate or decisive outcomes. By contrast, both reciprocating and trial-and-error ease the tension and make border crises more likely to end in compromises. Third, in the long term, the bullying strategies enable states to learn the costs of territorial fights, who then are willing to drop territorial claims. Neither reciprocating or trial-and-error strategies has this effect.
Rousseau and the Problem of Censorship: Freedom, Virtue, and the Education of the Citizen: I investigate Rousseau's formulation of how the people and their government act as sources of civic education and censorship. I define censorship broadly to include all institutionally or publicly enforced moral or policy views. Using Rousseau's Letter to M. d'Alembert as a starting point, I examine the way in which public morals and opinions structure political discourse, determining the influence of laws and the limits of institutions. I argue that while law can force the people to tacitly conform by threat of punishment, it cannot compel the people's will. Unlike classic liberal approaches that separate morality and law, Rousseau emphasizes a reciprocal influence between them, and contends that their relegation to separate spheres enervates the laws and further distances the people from legislation. Public opinion and its product, morals, resist attempts at government censorship, but themselves demand compliance. As a result, Rousseau argues, social and political freedom necessitate a certain uniformity of public opinion and law. That uniformity, however, requires a civic education reinforced by both an institutional and public form of censorship. In addition to a more general civic education, reason and conscience, two key intellectual and psychological traits, require cultivation and proper direction, resulting in the individual's identification with and concern for their fellow citizens' well-being. Overall, my work explores the extent of Rousseau's formulation and the limits of its application to ancient, modern, and contemporary politics.
Risky Business: A Sub-National Analysis of Violent Organized Crime and Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico: This dissertation examines the relationship between violent organized crime and foreign direct investment (FDI) through sub-national analysis focused on the case of Mexico. The results indicate that FDI decisions vary based on the type of violent organized crime.
Institutionalizing Atrocity: An Analysis of Civil War Legacy, Post-Conflict Governance, and State Behavior: This dissertation examines the behavior of post-civil war governments and explores how the aftermath of civil war not only influences state behavior but how the previous conflict becomes institutionalized through a state's governance decisions. While post-civil war states will each have different governance needs as they endure the post-conflict environment, this dissertation contends that the governance decisions a state chooses are key to understanding, and potentially predicting, future government behavior. Further, it is important to recognize the role that the previous civil war plays towards shaping a state's governance decisions and the opportunities available.
Nations at War: How External Threat Affects Ethnic Politics: This dissertation explores the how external threat from militarized interstate disputes and interstate rivalries affect the relationship between the state and the ethnic groups within its borders. Specifically, it finds that national identity, the preservation of ethnic regional autonomy, and the formation of ethnic-based militias are all influenced by states involvement in international conflicts. In Sub Saharan Africa, discriminated groups are less likely to identify with their national identity and when the state is involved in an interstate dispute, while the rest of the country increases their likelihood to identify with the nation, discriminated groups cling to their ethnic identity. During and interstate rivalry, ethnic groups face a heightened risk of the state taking away their autonomy over a region. If the rivalry becomes too intense or the ethnic group shares kin with the rival, the ethnic group has lower chance of losing their autonomy during rivalry. Finally, ethnic minority seeking to form a militia are able to form one faster if their ethnic group is well represented in the military's rank and file or if their co-ethnics in the rank and file had combat experience in an interstate dispute were military force was used. Ethnic groups that are well represented in officer corps are less likely to have organizations with militias especially if those officers have combat experience. Using a logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models I find a strong link between interstate conflict and ethnic politics.
Rebels, from the Beginning to the End: Rebel Origins and the Dynamics of Civil Conflicts: This dissertation addresses the puzzle of whether rebel group origins have an effect on rebel wartime behavior and the broader dynamics of civil conflict. Using a quantitative approach over three empirical chapters I study the relationship between rebel origins and conflict onset, duration and intensity, and wartime group capacity. Two qualitative cases examine the relationship between rebel origins, wartime group capacity, and adaptation during war, further unpacking the theoretical mechanisms linking group origins and conflict dynamics. I posit that rebel groups emerge from pre-existing organizations and networks that vary along military and civilian dimensions and condition the development of military and mobilization capacity of their successor insurgent groups. Groups with more developed militarization and mobilization mechanisms prior to conflict are likely to enter into civil conflict earlier in their existence and fight in longer and bloodier conflicts. I also find a strong relationship between origins characteristics and the development of military and civilian wartime capacity. Origins exert a strong legacy effect on the type and strength of intra-war capability, indicating that significant rebel adaptation is difficult.
State Capacity, Security Forces and Terrorist Group Termination: This dissertation examines how different forms of state capacity affect the decision of terror groups to end their campaign. Building a theoretical framework about the relationship between state capacity and terrorist group termination, I address the following research questions: How do terror groups respond to the changes in non-repressive forms of state's capacity, such as bureaucratic capacity, extractive capacity, and how do those responses of terror groups affect the chance of their demise? How do the changes in non-repressive forms of state capacity affect the likelihood of termination of particular types of terror groups, specifically ethnic terror groups? And finally, how do security forces representing repressive capacity of states affect the probability of a terrorist group end? I argue that as the state fighting the terror group increases its capacity, that will generate an incentive for the terror group to respond to increasing state capacity to secure its survival and maintain its existence. As the terror group produces responses to increasing state capacity in terms of rebuilding its capacity to operate and keeping its popular support base intact, it will be less likely to end its terror campaign. This argument is particularly relevant for terror groups operating on behalf of a certain ethnic or religious group. I test this theory by doing a cross-national quantitative analysis as well as doing a qualitative analysis on the PKK's terror campaign in Turkey in the period of 1984-2013. I find that increasing extractive capacity and bureaucratic capacity of states encourages terror groups to engage in coercive and non-coercive actions to survive increasing state capacity, thereby reducing the chances of ending its terror campaign. I also argue that security forces, who represent repressive capacity of states, also play a role on the decision of terror groups to end their campaigns. By focusing exclusively on …
Identity Claims and Leader Survival: The purpose of this dissertation is to show a yet undiscovered link between identity claims and the survival of political leaders. Diversionary theory posits that starting foreign conflicts during domestic hardship may increase the popular approval ratings of the leader and maintain him in power. I suggest that leaders may resort to initiating identity claims as a diversionary action to stay in power. Indeed, using survival analysis, this study finds a connection between the desire of leaders to protect their ethnic kin in neighboring countries and the leaders' own popularity and survival at home. Yet, identity claim initiation and escalation significantly decrease the chances of leaders to remain in office. At first sight, this is in sharp contrast with the diversionary theory literature, which suggests that leaders may employ foreign wars as a means to distract from domestic problems and increase their survival in office. Yet, the realization that the escalation of conflict may backfire does not necessarily deter leaders from diverting. Therefore, this analysis offers a new perspective in the field of rationalist explanations for war.
Making It Personal: The Psychological Lifecyle of Witnessing before the ICTY: Extant transitional justice literature examining processes and functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia have traditionally looked at the output and outcomes from an institutional level of analysis and have neglected to examine how the witness feels about his or her own participation in the process. This project provides deeper perspective from the individual level of analysis based on sequential phases of the testimony process lifecycle: the reason the witness decided to participate with the tribunal, the psychological effect of the testimonial process, and the satisfaction the witness had about their own contribution to the ICTY. I expound upon existing findings and confirm survivors of sexual assault testify more from personal reasons than out of altruistic motivations. I further examine the two competing theories that dominate the discussion of how the testimonial process normatively effects a witness and find demonstrable evidence to confirm either. I create and confirm an explanatory theory that addresses patterns of emotional states both prior to and after completion of testifying, providing a theoretical explanation of negative emotions reported by witnesses both before and after testifying. I also confirm that witnesses who identified being motivated to testify out of an obligation reported a stronger belief that their testimony helped contribute to finding justice while witnesses who participated seeking internal or personal closure believed their participation helped the tribunal establish the truth about the wars in the former Yugoslavia. These findings and information can help to inform best practices for future tribunal services as well as assist victim and witness policies.
Explaining the Homeland-Diaspora Nexus: Israel Motivated Violence and Its Consequences: This dissertation examines the homeland-diaspora nexus with a focus on how homeland conflict affects diaspora targeting and insecurity in Israel.
Naming and Shaming Non-State Organizations, Coercive State Capacity, and Its Effects on Human Rights Violations: Scholars generally assume that states are shamed for their own behavior, but they can also be shamed for the lack of investigation for violence perpetrated by domestic non-state actors. I engage this previously-unstudied phenomenon and develop a theory to explain how states will respond to being shamed for failing to control domestic violence. I examine two types of outcomes: the governments' change in behavior, and the accountability efforts against state agents that have abused human rights. For the government's reaction to being shamed for violence from non-state organizations, I develop a theory to examine changes in coercive state capacity – including military and police personnel – since this reaction may largely exacerbate human rights violations. I hypothesize that states shamed due to abuses by violent non-state organizations (VNSO) will increase military personnel to halt criminal violence and respond to the international spotlight. I then examine the relationship between naming and shaming states over physical integrity abuses by different types of perpetrators and human rights prosecutions. Using newly coded data on the types of perpetrators shamed in the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) country reports, I find that shaming over abuses that include VNSO as perpetrators decreases the likelihood of expanding their police force when the state has the military patrolling the streets and is likely to increase the predicted number of police prosecutions, particularly if the shaming is over killings from VNSOs. Lastly, I examine how changes in coercive capacity affect human rights violations and the number of violent episodes from VNSOs.
Drug-Related Violence and Party Behavior: The Case of Candidate Selection in Mexico: This dissertation examines how parties respond and adapt their behavior to political violence. Building a theoretical argument about strategic party behavior and party capture, I address the following questions: How do parties select and recruit their candidates in regions with high levels of violence and the pervasive presence of VNAs? Do parties respond to violence by selecting certain types of candidates who are more capable of fighting these organizations? Do parties react differently at different levels of government? And finally, how do VNSAs capture political selection across at different levels of government? I argue that in regions where there is high "uncertainty," candidate selection becomes highly important for both party leaders and DTOs. Second, I argue that as violence increases and the number of DTOs also, criminal organizations, as risk-averse actors, will capture candidate selection. I posit that as violence increases, there is a greater likelihood that candidates will have criminal connections. To test my theory, I use the case of Mexico. Violence in Mexico and the presence of criminal organizations across the country has experienced a great deal of variation since the 1990s. In Chapter 2, I find that violence affects the gubernatorial candidate selection of the PRI, PAN and PRD. In high violence states, parties select gubernatorial candidates with long experience in subnational politics compared to other types of experiences. In chapter 3, however, I find that at the municipal level not all the parties respond equally to violence. As a municipality becomes more violent, the PRI and PAN party leaders are more likely to select mayoral candidates who were either state or federal deputies or candidates who were both. In contrast, the PRD is likely to recruit state deputies as a function of violence, but not national deputies or candidates who were deputies at both the state …
Rentier States and Conflict: New Concepts, Different Perspectives: Since the 1970s, a curious phenomenon has emerged, suggesting that resource rich countries are "cursed" by their resources. Over the last couple of decades, researchers have argued that rentier countries are more likely to have educational underachievement, the Dutch disease, corruption, slower democratization, and conflict. Although current research has proven helpful and productive, some aspects still remain contested in both theoretical and empirical terms. This dissertation aims to fill certain lacunae in this literature. My dissertation examines how ordinary citizens turn into dissidents and then to rebels in rentier states. I build and test an innovative theoretical argument, which focuses on individuals' daily lives, and explains how policies by rentier governments discourage merit-based employment. This, in turn, yields a high level of grievance among segments of the population. I also develop a comprehensive theory that combines macro-level and micro-level explanations of conflict onset in rentier states. Finally, I analyze an important, but previously neglected aspect of civil wars in rentier states: conflict outcomes. I suggest that the existence of abundant natural resources would have a significant impact on conflict outcomes. Accordingly, government victory would be more likely, and negotiated settlement would be less likely in rentier countries compared to non-rentier countries.
The Middle Matters: Political Responses to Income Inequality in an American State: This dissertation examines the effects of micro-level inequality on political preferences and voting behavior.
Knowing What is Useful: Rousseau's Education Concerning Being, Science, and Happiness: Is there a relationship between science and happiness and, if so, what is it? Clearly, since the Enlightenment, science has increased life expectancy and bodily comfort. Is this happiness, or do humans long for something more? To examine these questions, I investigate the works of Jean-Jacques Rousseau. Specifically, I focus on the Discourses and the Emile, as he states in the Confessions that these works form a whole statement concerning the natural goodness of man. I agree with the literature that finds happiness, for Rousseau, is a sentiment one experiences when their faculties correspond to their desires, as this produces wholeness. In this dissertation, I find a form of modern science is necessary for humans to experience higher forms of happiness. This form of science is rooted in utility of the individual. To fully explain this finding, I begin with Rousseau's concept of being. By nature, our being experiences a low form of wholeness. I show Rousseau's investigation of being exposes a catch-22 situation for developing it to experience higher forms of wholeness. While freedom allows us to develop reason and judgment, we need reason and judgment to properly direct our freedom to perfect our individual being. I then show how three different types of tutors and educators, which include a scientific education, are directed by the single goal of maintaining wholeness in Emile's being so he can achieve the happiness of romantic love. Finally, I find that Emile's scientific education is an elaboration of the First Discourse and that his relationship with science, even from birth, plays a critical role for achieving romantic love in the future.
Territorial Issue Salience: Escalation, Resources, and Ethnicity: Conflict over territory is a major concern to scholars and policymakers, and much of conflict over territory is driven by the issues that make territory more or less attractive, or salient, to states. I examine the impact that tangible and intangible issue salience has on territorial claims, and in particular, how it drives both conflict and conflict escalation. I argue that intangible issues, such as ethnic or religious kin, plays a greater role in driving more severe forms of armed conflict and conflict escalation, compared to tangible factors such as natural resources. This is theorized to be due to the difficulty in dividing territory with intangible elements, as well as domestic political pressure driving leaders to escalate. These suppositions are supported, with the finding that identity plays a particularly crucial and unique role in driving states to more severe forms of armed conflict. Further, I examine how natural resources may be viewed by states by their type and form of utilization, with certain resources likely to be more valuable or strategic to states based on their rarity, concentration, or ease of substitution, based in part on a state's level of development. The results support a fairly uniform role of natural resources, with particular resources and combinations of resources serving to drive low level conflict, but with generally little impact on severe forms of armed conflict. Development also is found to play a role, driving poorer states to dispute natural resources of certain types. Lastly, I return to the topic of conflict over territory with an ethnic dimension by examining the role of issue indivisibility in the negotiations process, and find that negotiated settlements are harder to reach, and states more likely to favor unilateral action when disputing territory with an ethnic or religious component compared to other types of issues …
Elections and Authoritarian Rule: Causes and Consequences of Adoption of Grassroots Elections in China: This dissertation investigates the relationship between elections and authoritarian rule with a focus on the case of China's adoption of elections at the grassroots level. In this dissertation, I look at the incentives facing Chinese local governments in choosing between holding competitive elections or state-controlled elections, and how the selection of electoral rules shapes the public's preferences over political institutions and influences the citizens' political behaviors, especially voting in elections and participation in contentious activities. The overarching theme in this dissertation proposes that the sources and consequences of Chinese local elections are conditioned on the state-owned resources and the governing costs. When the amount of state-owned resources to rule the local society is limited, the paucity of resources will incentivize authoritarian governments to liberalize grassroots elections to offset the governance costs. The various levels of election liberalization will lead to different consequences in the public's political behavior. An abundance of state-owned resources not only discourages rulers from sharing power with the local society, but also supplies the rulers with strong capacity to obtain loyalty from voters when elections are adopted. As a result, elections under authoritarian governments with an abundance of state-owned resources will see more loyalist voters than elections with authoritarian governments with fewer state-owned resources. In addition, the varieties of election practices will exert impacts on public opinion toward the authoritarian government: awareness of elections will enhance public trust in the government and decrease the public's intention to challenge the incumbents' authority while at the same time increasing the public's faith in the institutions, thereby encouraging the public to adopt official channels to air their grievances. The analysis of the village-level as well as individual-level survey data and cases lends empirical supports to the argument. First, I find that the governing costs—measured by the size of labor force—are …
The King Arrives: Chinese Government Inspections and Their Effects: This dissertation studies a critical facet of Chinese politics, inspections by higher Chinese government to villages. Principally, it looks at how village economic development determines government inspection decisions and how inspections, once conducted, impact village politics. Specifically, I argue that villages perceived as destabilizing to the Chinese regime, villages with higher levels of economic inequality and villages located at the two extremes of economic development, should see more inspections. In addition, I argue that inspections, in return, drive village politics: they increase village leaders' governing efficacy and raise villagers' political awareness. This theory has received strong support from both field work and quantitative empirical tests using the Chinese Household Income Project (2002) dataset.
Crossing Over: Essays on Ethnic Parties, Electoral Politics, and Ethnic Social Conflict: This dissertation analyzes several topics related to political life in ethnically divided societies. In chapter 2, I study the relationship between ethnic social conflict, such as protests, riots, and armed inter-ethnic violence, and bloc partisan identification. I find that protests have no effect on bloc support for political parties, riots increase bloc partisan identification, and that armed violence reduces this phenomenon. In chapter 3, I analyze the factors that influence the targeting of ethnic groups by ethnic parties in social conflict. I find some empirical evidence that conditions favorable to vote pooling across ethnic lines reduce group targeting by ethnic parties. In chapter 4, I analyze the effects of ethnic demography on ethnic party behavior. Through a qualitative analysis of party behavior in local elections in Macedonia, I find that ethnic parties change their strategies in response to changes in ethnic demography. I find that co-ethnic parties are less likely to challenge each other for power under conditions of split demography. In fact, under conditions of split demography, I find that co-ethnic parties have political incentives to unite behind a single party because intra-group competition jeopardizes the group's hold on power.
Protests in China: Why and Which Chinese People Go to the Street?: This research seeks to answer why and which Chinese people go to the street to protest. I argue that different sectors of Chinese society differ from each other regarding their tendencies to participate in protest. In addition to their grievances, the incentives to participate in protest and their capacities to overcome the collective action problem all needed to be taken into account. Using individual level data along with ordinary binary logistic regression and multilevel logistic regression models, I first compare the protest participation of workers and peasants and find that workers are more likely than peasants to participate in protests in the context of contemporary China. I further disaggregate the working class into four subtypes according to the ownership of the enterprises they work for. I find that workers of township and village enterprises are more likely than workers of state-owned enterprises to engage in protest activities, while there is no significant difference between the workers of domestic privately owned enterprises and the workers of foreign-owned enterprises regarding their protest participation. Finally, I find that migrant workers, which refers to peasants who move to urban areas in search of jobs, are less likely than urban registered workers to participate in protests.
A History of Overcoming: Nietzsche on the Moral Antecedents and Successors of Modern Liberalism: This work aims to understand human moral psychology under modern liberalism by analyzing the mature work of philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche. I seek to understand and evaluate Nietzsche's claim that liberalism, rather than being an overturning of slave morality, is an extension of the slave morality present in both Judaism and Christianity. To ground Nietzsche's critique of liberalism theoretically, I begin by analyzing his "master" and "slave" concepts. With these concepts clarified, I then apply them to Nietzsche's history by following his path from Judaism to liberalism and beyond--to his "last man" and Übermensch. I find that Nietzsche views history as a series of overcomings wherein a given mode of power maintenance runs counter to the means by which power was initially attained. Liberalism, as the precursor and herald of the "last man," threatens the end of overcoming and therefore compromises the future of human valuation and meaning.
Friends of the State Courts: Organized Interests and State Courts of Last Resort: Why do interest groups participate in state courts of last resort by filing amicus curiae briefs? Are they influential when they do? This dissertation examines these questions using an original survey of organized interests that routinely participate in state supreme courts, as well as data on all amicus curiae briefs and majority opinions in over 14,000 cases decided in all fifty-two state supreme courts for a four year period. I argue that interest groups turn to state judiciaries to achieve the dual goals of influencing policy and organizational maintenance, as amicus briefs can help organized interests achieve both outcomes. Furthermore, I contend that amicus briefs are influential in shaping judicial policy-making through the provision of legally persuasive arguments. The results suggest that interest groups do file amicus briefs to both lobby for their preferred policies and to support their organization's long-term viability. Additionally, the results indicate that organized interests also participate in counteractive lobbying in state courts of last resort by filing amicus briefs to ensure their side is represented and to dull the effect of oppositional amici. The findings also demonstrate support for the influence of amicus briefs on judicial policy-making on state high courts, as amicus briefs can influence the ideological direction of the court's majority opinions. Overall, this research extends our understanding of interest group lobbing in the judiciary and in state policy venues, and provides insight into judicial politics and policy-making on state courts of last resort.
The Gulf Cooperation Council, 1981-1994: The purpose of this study is to analyze the foreign policy outcomes of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to understand the extent to which a Regional Intergovernmental Organization (RGO) consisting of developing nations is able to promote regional cooperation. Much of the literature on integration and the formation of Intergovernmental Organizations was developed with regard to western nations. These approaches are examined for their contributions to foreign policy behavior analysis and with respect to understanding why small and developing nations join such organizations. Final analysis of the outcomes using two scales to measure the organization's ability to promote regional cooperation reveal that the level of success was moderate and the level of political action undertaken by the GCC was generally moderate to low. Leadership is supportive of the organization but both external and internal factors contribute to the modest levels achieved so far. Issues of national sovereignty and a decade of regional conflicts affected the ability of the organization to achieve greater levels or regional cooperation.
Run, Women, Run! Female Candidates and Term Limits: A State-Level Analysis: This dissertation seeks to explain the puzzle in the state politics literature which expects females to benefit from the enactment of term limits, but initial research finds the number of female in office decreases after the implementation of term limits. Examining this puzzle involves three separate stand-alone chapters which explore female candidate emergence (1), success rates (2), and women-friendly state legislative districts (3). The goal of the dissertation is to reconcile the puzzle while adding insight into how female candidates behave at the state-level. Overall, I find that term limits increases female descriptive representation by increasing the likelihood a female candidate will run and win an election.
Scripture for America: Scriptural Interpretation in John Locke's Paraphrase: Is John Locke a philosopher or theologian? When considering Locke's religious thought, scholars seldom point to his Paraphrase and Notes on the Epistles of St. Paul. This is puzzling since the Paraphrase is his most extensive treatment of Christian theology. Since this is the final work of his life, did Locke undergo a deathbed conversion? The scholarship that has considered the Paraphrase often finds Locke contradicting himself on various theological doctrines. In this dissertation, I find that Locke not only remains consistent with his other writings, but provides his subtlest interpretation of Scripture. He is intentionally subtle in order to persuade a Protestant audience to modern liberalism. This is intended to make Protestantism, and specifically Calvinism, the vehicle for modern liberalism. This is seen clearly in Max Weber's The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. Though Weber concludes that Protestant support for capitalism in the late 19th Century is due to its theological foundation, I find that Weber is actually examining Lockean Protestantism. Locke's success in transforming Protestantism is also useful today in showing how a modern liberal can converse with someone who actively opposes, and may even wish to harm, modern liberalism. The dissertation analyzes four important Protestant doctrines: Faith Alone, Scripture Alone, the church and family, and Christian political life.
New Rules to an Old Game: Electoral Reforms and Post-Civil War Stability: One of the most common features found within peace agreements are provisions that call for post-civil war elections. Unfortunately, recent research on post-civil war stability has consistently demonstrated that the initial elections held after civil wars significantly increases the risk for renewed fighting. While this research does highlight a danger posed by post-war elections, it focuses only on one element associated with post-civil war democracy. I argue that by implementing electoral reforms that are called for in peace agreements, post-war countries reduce the risk of renewed civil war. Implementing these peace agreement provisions increases the durability of post-war peace in two ways. First, by implementing costly electoral reforms called for in the peace agreement, the government signals a credible commitment to the peace process which reduces security dilemmas faced by opposition groups. Second, electoral reforms generate new avenues for political participation for disaffected citizens, which reduces the ability of hardliners to mobilize future armed opposition. I examine how implementing post-war electoral reforms impact the risk of renewed conflict from 1989 through 2010. Using duration models, I demonstrate that implementing these electoral reforms substantially reduces the risk of renewed conflict.
Clenching the Fists of Dissent: Political Unrest, Repression, and the Evolution to Civil War: Previous scholarship has long concentrated on the behaviors of belligerents during regime-dissident interactions. While much of the progress in the literature concentrated on the micro-level processes of this relationship, little research has focused on providing a theoretical reasoning on why belligerents choose to act in a particular manner. This project attempts to open the black box of decision making for regimes and dissidents during regime-dissident interactions in order to provide a theoretical justification for the behaviors of the belligerents involved. Moreover, this project argues that there is a relationship between the lower level events of political violence and civil war as the events at earlier stages of the conflict influence the possible outcome of civil conflict. Regimes and dissidents alike are strategic actors who conduct themselves in a manner to ensure their survival while concurrently attempting to succeed at achieving their respective goals. Although all authoritarian regimes are similar in their differences to democracies, there are significant differences between the regimes, which influence the decision making of the regime leader to ensure the survival of the political institution. In addition to influencing the decision calculus of the regimes, the behavior of the regimes impacts the probability of civil war at later stages of the interaction. Conversely, dissidents also perform as strategic actors in an attempt to gain their preferred concessions and outcomes. Although their comprehension of the coercive capacity of a regime is limited, their knowledge of the repressive capacity of the regime provides them with the understanding of their future fate if they escalate to violence against the regime. This project is conducted using two theories on regime and dissident actions and responses, two large-N empirical analyses of regime and dissident behaviors during nonviolent and violent dissident campaigns from 1945-2006, and two historical case studies of Egypt and Syria …
Montesquieu, Diversity, and the American Constitutional Debate: It has become something of a cliché for contemporary scholars to assert that Madison turned Montesquieu on his head and thereafter give little thought to the Frenchman’s theory that republics must remain limited in territorial size. Madison did indeed present a formidable challenge to Montesquieu’s theory, but I will demonstrate in this dissertation that the authors of the Federalist Papers arrived at the extended sphere by following a theoretical pathway already cemented by the French philosopher. I will also show that Madison’s “practical sphere” ultimately concedes to Montesquieu that excessive territorial size and high levels of heterogeneity will overwhelm the citizens of a republic and enable the few to oppress the many. The importance of this dissertation is its finding that the principal mechanism devised by the Federalists for dealing with factions—the enlargement of the sphere—was crafted specifically for the purpose of moderating interests, classes, and sects within an otherwise relatively homogeneous nation. Consequently, the diverse republic that is America today may be exposed to the existential threat anticipated by Montesquieu’s theory of size—the plutocratic oppression of society by an elite class that employs the strategy of divide et impera.

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