Date: May 1996
Creator: Ralston, Roy W.
Description: This study investigates changes in rates of property crime in the United States from 1958 to 1993. Predictor variables include changes in rates of economic factors (inflation, technological/cyclical/frictional unemployment), arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR), interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment, alcohol offenses, interaction of alcohol offenses and poverty, drug abuse violations, and interaction of drug abuse violations and poverty. Changes in poverty, population growth, and police presence are employed as control variables. The Beach-McKinnon Full Maximum- Likelihood EGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is used to test seven hypotheses. Significant positive effects upon changes in aggregate property crime rates are found for five predictors: (a) inflation, (b) cyclical unemployment, (c) frictional unemployment, (d) the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment, and (e) the interaction of rates of alcohol offenses and poverty. To explain changes in property crime rates, further research should decompose aggregate rates particularly those pertaining to the economy. Also, the relationship between the interaction of poverty and drug abuse violations, at the aggregate level, and changes in property crime rates should be clarified. This research has important policy implications related to the impact of social, economic, and educational issues on mainstream ...
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