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Environmental Variability and Climate Change
The PAGES research community works toward improving our understanding of the Earth's changing environment. By placing current and future global changes in a long term perspective, they can be assessed relative to natural variability. Since the industrial revolution, the Earth System has become increasingly affected by human activities. Natural and human processes are woven into a complex tapestry of forcings, responses, feedbacks and consequences. Deciphering this complexity is essential as we plan for the future. Paleoenvironmental research is the only way to investigate Earth System processes that operate on timescales longer than the period of instrumental records.
Global Change and the Earth System: A planet under pressure
The PAGES research community works toward improving our understanding of the Earth's changing environment. By placing current and future global changes in a long term perspective, they can be assessed relative to natural variability. Since the industrial revolution, the Earth System has become increasingly affected by human activities. Natural and human processes are woven into a complex tapestry of forcings, responses, feedbacks and consequences. Deciphering this complexity is essential as we plan for the future. Paleoenvironmental research is the only way to investigate Earth System processes that operate on timescales longer than the period of instrumental records.
Marine Ecosystems and Global Change
The ocean is a vital component of the metabolism of the Earth and plays a key role in global change. In fact, the oceans cover so much of the Earth's surface that our planet has been described as the Water Planet, and it could be argued that its most extensive ecosystems are marine. Marine ecosystems are inextricably involved in the physical, chemical, biological and societal processes of global change. It is impossible to describe and understand the Earth system without understanding the ocean, the special characteristics of the environment that it provides for life, the changes that it is undergoing and the manner in which these changes interact with the total Earth System. Understanding the functioning of marine ecosystems and how they respond to global change is also essential in order to effectively manage global marine living resources, such as fisheries. The GLOBEC project is an international response to the need to understand how global change will affect the abundance, diversity and productivity of marine populations, from zooplankton to fish, that comprise a major component of oceanic ecosystems. GLOBEC's goal is to advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of such ecosystems, their major subsystems, and responses to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the response of marine ecosystems to global change. This volume in the IGBP Science Series, "Marine Ecosystems and Global Change", gives topical examples of the scientifi c problems that GLOBEC is tackling, the innovative approaches adopted, and some selected scientific achievements. It has been written at a time when GLOBEC is in the mid-phase of its implementation. The ultimate achievements of GLOBEC research will be presented in a final synthesis at the end of the project.
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Global Change
From the perspective of terrestrial ecosystems, the most important component of global change over the next three or four decades will likely be land-use/cover change. It is driven largely by the need to feed the expanding human population, expected to increase by almost one billion (109) people per decade for the next three decades at least. Much of this increase will occur in developing countries in the low-latitude regions of the world. To meet the associated food demand, crop yields will need to increase, consistently, by over 2% every year through this period. Despite advances in technology, increasing food production must lead to intensification of agriculture in areas which are already cropped, and conversion of forests and grasslands into cropping systems. Much of the latter will occur in semi-arid regions and on lands which are marginally suitable for cultivation, increasing the risk of soil erosion, accelerated water use, and further land degradation.
The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems
From the perspective of terrestrial ecosystems, the most important component of global change over the next three or four decades will likely be land-use/cover change. It is driven largely by the need to feed the expanding human population, expected to increase by almost one billion (109) people per decade for the next three decades at least. Much of this increase will occur in developing countries in the low-latitude regions of the world. To meet the associated food demand, crop yields will need to increase, consistently, by over 2% every year through this period. Despite advances in technology, increasing food production must lead to intensification of agriculture in areas which are already cropped, and conversion of forests and grasslands into cropping systems. Much of the latter will occur in semi-arid regions and on lands which are marginally suitable for cultivation, increasing the risk of soil erosion, accelerated water use, and further land degradation.
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