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Afghanistan: Connections to Islamic Movements In Central and South Asia and Southern Russia
After several years of relative peace in Central Asia and southern Russia, Islamic extremist movements have become more active in Russia and in Central and South Asia, threatening stability in the region. Although numerous factors might account for the upsurge in activity, several of these movements appear to have connections to the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban regime in Afghanistan. These linkages raise questions about whether the United States, as part of a broader effort to promote peace and stability in the region, should continue to engage the Taliban regime, or strongly confront it. This report will be updated as events warrant.
Algeria: A New President and His Policies
This report details concerns surrounding the election of Abdulaziz Bouteflika to the presidency of Algeria in 1999. Specifically, the opposing party labeled the election as corrupt. After seven years of civil war Bouteflika proposed a civil concord and is restoring Algerian foreign relations to what they once were. Currently, the relationship between the U.S. and Algeria looks positive for the foreseeable future.
Background to the Overthrow of President Aristide
This report provides background information on the violent and authoritarian traditions that have characterized Haiti's political dynamics since Haiti attained independence in 1804. It examines Haiti's difficult path toward democracy after the fall of the Duvalier regime, from numerous short-lived governments until the election of Aristide. Finally, the report also surveys Aristide's rule and his subsequent overthrow by the Haitian military.
Banking Acquisition and Merger Procedures
This report discusses in general terms the basic process and time line for banking industry acquisitions and mergers and briefly discusses the May 4, 1998 application by Travelers Group to merge with Citicorp. Among the issues discussed are: potential impact on consumers; whether the new entities would be too big to fail; and, whether competitive equity calls for financial modernization legislation with functional regulation of the securities, banking, and insurance sectors of companies offering customers a full range of financial products and services. Legislative developments on financial modernization issues in the 105th Congress are reported in CRS Issue Brief 97034, which is available on the Legislative Information System.
Basic Questions on U.S. Citizenship and Naturalization
U.S. citizenship is conferred at birth under the principle of jus soli (nationality of place of birth) and the principle of jus sanguinis (nationality of parents). The U.S. Constitution states as a fundamental rule of jus soli citizenship that "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." The exceptions to universal citizenship comprehended by the requirement that a person be born "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" include: (1) children born to a foreign sovereign or accredited diplomatic official; (2) children born on a foreign public vessel, such as a warship; (3) children born to an alien enemy in hostile occupation; and (4) native Indians.
Bosnian Muslim-Croat Federation: Key to Peace in Bosnia?
The Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina was established in March 1994, with U.S. mediation. It aims to unite areas held by the largely Bosniak (Muslim) pre-war republic government with areas held by Croats. The Bosnian peace agreement, signed in Dayton in November 1995, recognized the Federation and the Bosnian Serb Republika Srpska as two largely autonomous entities within a weak, but sovereign Bosnia and Hercegovina union. Real political, economic and military integration of Bosniak and Croat-held areas has been slow to materialize. The United States has played a key role in setting up the Federation and in efforts to make it viable. The long term viability of the Federation is open to question, however, due to continued mistrust between the two sides and significant differences in their perceived interests.
Business and Labor Spending in U.S. Elections
Federal election law has long prohibited corporate and union spending in federal elections, but distinctions in statutes and judicial rulings have opened avenues by which these groups have been able to spend money in the electoral process. Business groups make particular use of political action committee (PAC) donations to candidates and soft money donations to parties. Unions made prominent use of issue advocacy in 1996, but labor’s political strength lies in exempt activity communications with members. This report explains these tools and their use in today’s elections.
Business and Labor Spending in U.S. Elections
Federal election law has long prohibited corporate and union spending in federal elections, but distinctions in statutes and judicial rulings have opened avenues by which these groups have been able to spend money in the electoral process. Business groups make particular use of political action committee (PAC) donations to candidates and soft money donations to parties. Unions made prominent use of issue advocacy in 1996, but labor’s political strength lies in exempt activity communications with members. This report explains these tools and their use in today’s elections.
China After Deng Xiaoping - Implications for the United States
Deng Xiaoping's death will create a vacuum at the center of political power in China. Successor leaders will decide whether to continue the recent collective leadership decision-making processes and policy emphasis on political stability and economic reform; or to press for political power in a search for personal or policy advantage. A struggle for political power in Beijing would complicate an already difficult set of problems of governance caused by rapid economic growth, social change, realignment of central and local power arrangements and other factors. Nevertheless, there are important reasons why China may effectively work its way through the leadership transition.
China in Transition: Changing Conditions and Implications for U.S. Interests
Congressional interest in China's transformation has grown. Congressional concerns focus on economic opportunities in China and how conditions there affect U.S. security, economic and political interests.
China in Transition: Changing Conditions and Implications for U.S. Interests
Americans disagree as to whether or not China poses a serious security concern for U.S. interests in peace and security in Asia and the Pacific. Many point to rising Chinese defense capabilities and assertive rhetoric to warn of Chinese military- backed expansion. Others judge that the main danger comes from China's weakness. They argue that the possibility of an emerging breakdown in government authority in China could prompt regional disorder and refugee flows seriously undermining Asian stability. Still others see the Chinese "threat" as grossly exaggerated. They stress that Beijing leaders are in control of the country and see their interests best served by accommodation to their richer and generally better armed neighbors.
China: Pending Legislation in the 105th Congress
The 105 Congress has been active on issues involving China. This report, which will be updated as developments occur, tracks pending human rights legislation, including bills concerning: prison conditions and prison labor exports; coercive abortion practices; China’s policies toward religion; and more general human rights issues.
China: Pending Legislation in the 105th Congress
This report tracks pending human rights legislation, including bills concerning: prison conditions and prison labor exports (H.R. 2195, H.R. 2358); coercive abortion practices (H.R. 2570); China’s policies toward religion (H.R. 967, H.R. 2431); and more general human rights issues (H.R. 2095). Other bills concern Taiwan — in particular, Taiwan’s entry into the World Trade Organization (H.Res. 190) and the U.S. role in helping Taiwan with a theater missile defense system (H.R. 2386). Also, legislation is pending on China’s missile proliferation activities (H.Res. 188), Radio Free Asia broadcasting to China (H.R. 2232), China’s participation in multilateral institutions (H.R. 1712, H.R. 2605), and the activities of China’s military and intelligence services (H.R. 2647, H.R. 2190).
China's Changing Conditions
Congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China has grown substantially over the past few years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China fosters U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 and 1996 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. Present conditions in China include; A vibrant but sometimes overheated economy, A less divided central political leadership.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiao-ping.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.
China's Changing Conditions: Possible Implications for US Interests
This report discusses possible outcomes and implications for U.S. interests vary. For example, increasingly effective political administration and reform with continued successful economic modernization would be generally compatible with U.S. interests in greater economic opportunity, foreign policy cooperation, and political liberalization in China. Alternatively, Chinese administration, economic vitality, and internal cohesion could degenerate, limiting U.S. economic opportunities, challenging U.S. interests in stability in East Asia, but also diminishing potential threats from a strong China. Finally, China could develop formidable economic power while retaining authoritarian political control, with China emerging as a world power less interested in accommodating U.S. interests than in opposing them.
China's Prospects After Tiananmen Square: Current Conditions, Future Scenarios, and a Survey of Expert Opinion
Since the violent military crackdown around Tiananmen Square, most Western observers have struggled to understand and explain three major questions concerning the Chinese situation: first, why a forward-looking and reform-minded Chinese leadership chose such violent force over a more accommodating approach toward the peaceful public protests of June 1989; second, how to assess current political and economic conditions in China in light of Tiananmen Square; and third, what the events of the last two years mean for China's future prospects.
Deregulation as Market Opening in Japan
Deregulation of Japan's economy is of interest to the United States because regulations may work as nontariff barriers to U.S. exports and contribute to the $60 billion U.S. bilateral merchandise trade deficit. Excessive regulations also may hamper the ability of the Japanese economy to recover from recession and to augment world wide economic growth. The United States has submitted a request of about 200 items that it would like Japan to deregulate. Negotiations are continuing under the Framework Talks, and some of the items will likely be included in the Japanese government's five-year plan to deregulate and liberalize its economy.
A Directory of Some Interest Groups and Governmental Organizations Concerned With National Environmental Policies
This report briefly describes selected associations that have demonstrated strong and continuous interest in environmental protection policies of the United States. It provides background information on some of the active participants in national policy discussions. The set of organizations abstracted for this report is not comprehensive; many groups necessarily have been omitted, often because they failed to respond to our request for information. An attempt was made to balance divergent political opinions and to include groups with different perspectives. All associations included in the report have nationwide membership, maintain an office in the vicinity of the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, and actively seek to influence national (as opposed to international or regional) environmental policies. The financial information provided varies depending on what was available to CRS.
Electricity Restructuring Background: Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 (PUHCA)
This report provides background information on PUHCA, including its history and impact. It also discusses how PUHCA reform fits into the current electric utility industry restructuring debate. This report will be updated as events warrant. For related information on electricity restructuring, see the CRS Electronic Briefing Book.
English as the Official Language of the United States: An Overview
This report provides background on contemporary efforts to declare English the official language, a review of selected issues raised by official English proposals in Congress, and a summary of arguments that have been advanced in favor of and in opposition to such proposals.
Environmental Reauthorizations and Regulatory Reform: From the 104th Congress to the 105th
The 104th Congress pursued efforts to reform environmental regulations on several fronts: (1) revising regulatory decision making processes; (2) attaching specific reforms to funding bills; (3) establishing a House corrections day calendar of bills addressing specific regulatory problems; and (4) incorporating regulatory reforms into individual program reauthorization bills. The 105th Congress has pursued regulatory reform in four primary directions: (1) proposals to establish a comprehensive cost-benefit/risk analysis framework for regulatory programs, (2) private property “takings” initiatives, (3) amendments and reforms directed at individual environmental statutes, and (4) oversight of environmental programs.
The Former Soviet Union and U.S. Foreign Aid: Implementing the Assistance Program, 1992-1994
In fiscal year 1994, the new states of the former Soviet Union became collectively the second largest recipient of U.S. foreign assistance made available from all sources. Whether and how the assistance program is helping to bring about democratic systems and free market economies is increasingly a question of interest to Congress and the public at large.
German Unification
This is a report on German Unification and the poliitical transformations in Germany.
Haiti: Efforts to Restore President Aristide, 1991-1994
This report tracks the efforts to restore to office President Aristide of Haiti between the years 1991-1994. During this period, the main U.S. foreign policy concern was the restoration of the democratic process to Haiti. Closely related to this was the issue of Haitians attempting to flee to the United States by boat. Congressional concerns focused on human rights, Haitian migration, socioeconomic conditions, and drug trafficking.
Hong Kong After Its Return to China: Implications for US Interests
Hong Kong's return to China on July 1, 1997, went surprisingly smoothly. In the ensuing months, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare in the longer run under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in recent years suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
Hong Kong: Sino-British Disputes and Implications for U.S. Interests
On Oct. 7, 1992, Hong Kong's new Governor, Christopher F. Patten, unveiled a set of proposals to expand the voting franchise in Hong Kong and broaden the scope of other democratic initiatives. The People's Republic of China, which resumes sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, has objected strenuously to the proposals, claiming they are a violation of the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong. British and Hong Kong officials deny this, stating that the proposals deal with matters not mentioned in the Joint Declaration.
Hong Kong's Political Transition: Implications for U.S. Interests
On Oct. 7, 1992, Hong Kong's new Governor Christopher Patten unveiled proposals to expand the voting franchise in Hong Kong and broaden the scope of democratic institutions. Patten's proposals reflected a growing desire on the part of the colonial government and the people of Hong Kong that, in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, Hong Kong should erect safeguards against capricious Chinese government action after 1997. The proposals were seen by the British authorities as consistent with the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration -- the agreement governing Hong Kong's transfer to Chinese rule, but Beijing disagreed.
Hong Kong's Political Transition: Implications for U.S. Interests
On Oct. 7, 1992, Hong Kong's new Governor Christopher Patten's unveiled proposals to expand the voting franchise in Hong Kong and broaden the scope of democratic institutions. Patten's proposals reflected a growing desire on the part of the colonial government and the people of Hong Kong that, in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, Hong Kong should erect safeguards against capricious Chinese government action after 1997. The proposals were seen by the British authorities as consistent with the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration -- the agreement governing Hong Kong's transfer to Chinese rule, but Beijing disagreed.
Hong Kong's Return to China: Implications for U.S. Interests
In the months approaching China's resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in 1994-1995 suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
Hong Kong's Return to China: Implications for U.S. Interests
In the months approaching China's resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in 1994-1995 suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
Hong Kong's Transition to Chinese Rule: Issues, U.S. Interests, U.S. Options
Participants at a CRS seminar on Hong Kong's transition to Chinese rule generally agreed that there are now-- and are likely to be more--difficulties for U.S. interests as a result of PRC pressures on Hong Kong's political autonomy, rule of law and individual rights. PRC pressures and resistance in Hong Kong could also have negative effects on U.S. interests in Hong Kong's economic progress, although Hong Kong seems poised to continue to advance economically along with the rest of coastal China.
Impeachment Grounds: Part I: Pre-Constitutional Convention Materials
This report is a collection of selected background materials pertinent to the issue of what constitutes impeachable misconduct for purposes of Article II, section 4 of the United States Constitution quoted below. It includes excerpts from Blackstone, Wooddeson, and the impeachment clauses in pre-Constitutional Convention state constitutions.
Indonesia: May 1998 Political Crisis and Implications for U.S. Policy
This report discusses the worsening political tensions in Indonesia that emerged as a result of discontent with policies enacted by President Suharto and his government, and the effects that these tensions have on US policy. The report cites the shooting of students by riot police, as well as rioting in Jakarta in May 1998 as another factor for the political unrest and uncertainty.
Internships and Fellowships: Congressional, Federal, and Other Work Experience Opportunities
No Description Available.
The Intersection Between the Former Presidents Act and the Impeachment Process
This report is on The Intersection Between the Former Presidents Act and the Impeachment Process.
Iraq: International Support for U.S. Policy
Although there is a worldwide consensus that Iraq must comply with all applicable U.N. resolutions, international attitudes differ sharply on how to compel Iraq to comply with the U.N. program of eliminating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs. Some countries support U.S. threats to use force against Iraq as a necessary step to ensure that Iraq does not reconstitute banned weapons programs. Other countries believe that force would kill Iraqi civilians already chafing under seven years of international sanctions and could prompt Iraq to expel U.N. weapons inspectors. Meanwhile, during the week of February 23, the Senate is scheduled to consider S.Con.Res. 71, calling on the President to take all necessary and appropriate actions in response to the threat posed by Iraq's refusal to end its lethal weapons program.
Israeli-Palestinian Agreement
On August 27, 1993, Israel and the Palestinians announced that Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) official Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) had initialed a landmark agreement on August 19 in Oslo, Norway on a Declaration of Principles on interim self-government for the West Bank and Gaza Strip. On September 9, PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin exchanged letters unprecedented mutual recognition. On September 10, President Clinton welcomed the agreement, thanked Congress for its support, and announced that the United States would resume its dialog with the PLO. The Declaration was signed at the White House on September 13. This report provides summaries of the Declaration and the letters.
Japanese Lobbying and U.S. Automobile Policy
This report surveys U.S. automobile policy in the 1980s in order to clarify the effects of foreign lobbying. The conclusion is that the success of Japanese and other foreign lobbying on automobile policy has been mixed. Some decisions have gone their way; others have not. Their success is partly because they have aligned their efforts with those of powerful domestic interests.
Japan's New Era of Coalition Governance: Implications for U.S. Interests and Policy
Recent Japanese political instability has complicated U.S.-Japan relations and posed new challenges to the achievement of important American economic, foreign policy and security objectives. Since July 1993 Japan has been governed by coalitions under three different prime ministers. The first coalition, under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, pushed through electoral and campaign finance reform legislation of potentially long-term significance, but failed to overcome political, bureaucratic and interest group resistance to its economic and administrative reform agenda. Its successor's have appeared to have progressively less power and will to carry out promised reforms or assume international leadership commensurate with Japan's global economic weight.
Japan's Ongoing Political Instability: Implications for U.S. Interests
The surprise election of Socialist Party leader Tomiichi Murayama as Prime Minister on June 29, 1994, reflects an ongoing process of change and realignment in Japanese politics that, in the short term, has made the management of U.S.-Japan relations significantly more difficult and impeded the resolution of important issues. Although Murayama has pledged continuity in U.S.-Japan relations, and key cabinet posts have been given to senior LDP leaders with experience in dealing with Washington, his election could have a number of negative implications for U.S. interests. Among other possibilities, the change could temporarily set back the cause of political reform in Japan, further delay the recovery of the Japanese economy from a three-year long slump, pose new obstacles to trade negotiations aimed at more fully opening Japanese markets to U.S. goods and services, and bring into question Tokyo's cooperation under certain scenarios on the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The likely hiatus in major decisionmaking may continue at least until the next general election.
Japan's Politics and Government in Transition
Japan's politics and government are undergoing a historic transition. The 38-year one-party rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) came to an end on July 18, 1993, when the party was voted out of power, even as it remained the single largest party in the lower house of Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. Seven non-communist parties, with little in common save their shared interest in dethroning the LDP, formed a shaky coalition.
Japan's Prime Minister: Selection Process, 1991 Candidates, and Implications for the United States
Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu's concurrent two-year term as president of the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and Prime Minister of Japan expires at the end of October 1991. The May 1991 death of Shintaro Abe, the front runner to replace him, opened the field to nearly a dozen candidates. These include Kaifu for another term, senior LDP faction leaders Kiichi Miyazawa, Michio Watanabe, and Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, and several others. A clear favorite from this group has not emerged, in part because most except Kaifu are rumored to be involved in current and past stock market and banking scandals.
Japan's Uncertain Political Transition
Japan's current political instability began in July 1993, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 - was voted out and replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition government under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. The new government faced turmoil in April 1994, when Hosokawa suddenly resigned amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government after the Socialist party, a key coalition partner, quit the Hata coalition. Although beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no-confidence motion.
Japan's Uncertain Political Transition
Japan's current political instability began in July 1993, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 -- was voted out and replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition government under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. The new government faced turmoil in April 1994, when Hosokawa suddenly resigned amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government after the Socialist party, a key coalition partner, quit the coalition. Although beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no confidence motion.
Japan's Uncertain Political Transition
Japan's uncertain political transition began in July 1993, when the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 -- was replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition. Under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, the coalition faced turmoil in April 1994, when Hosokawa resigned abruptly amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a key coalition partner, quit the coalition. Though beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no-confidence motion.
Japan's Uncertain Political Transition
Japan's political uncertainty continues as it has since July 1993, when the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 -- was replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition. Under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, the coalition faced turmoil in April 1994, when he resigned amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a key coalition partner, quit the coalition. Though beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no-confidence motion.
July 1992 Japanese Elections
Elections for half of the 252 seats of the upper house of Japan's Diet (parliament) will be held in late July 1992. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appears unlikely to regain the majority it lost in the previous upper house election in July 1989. It appears that continued, but sometimes difficult, cooperation between the LDP and some of the smaller opposition parties is one likely result of the 1992 election. On the other hand, there is a possibility that significant political changes, such as the formation of a coalition government or even a reorganization of the political parties, could result from an opposition victory. As of early June, there are two large sources of uncertainty regarding the upcoming election: first, the LDP could dissolve the lower house and hold a lower house election on the same day as the upper house election, which would alter all calculations of likely outcomes; and second, political scandals which would probably hit the LDP hardest could be brought to light before the election.
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