Mainstream economic theory suggests that U.S. budget deficit was the main cause of the dollar appreciation between 1980 and early 1985. The high budget deficit forced the U.S. Government to compete against the private sector for available savings, raising interest rates in the United States. In response, net capital inflows to the United States increased, the demand for dollars on the foreign exchange market went up, and the dollar appreciated. Restrictive budgets and loose monetary policies abroad, both of which kept interest rates low abroad, also contributed to the dollar’s appreciation on over this period.
It is the purpose of this paper to present the range of viewpoints concerning the causes of inflation. Inflation is defined and distinguished from changes' in relative prices. The Monetarist, Post-Keynesian, and neo-Keynesian positions are discussed to illustrate the variety of perceptions as to the sources of sustained increases in the general price level.
This report describes the major market and policy forces that determine the general level of interest rates. The discussion is related to the recent economic experience of high interest rates and inflation, but may be generally applied to any economic environment.
This paper reviews the causes of the steep interest rate escalation since 1978 and the persistence of high rates during the recent recession and revival.
This report summarizes the current status of monetary conditions and policy. The report also describes the process though which Congress oversees monetary policy, the recent changes in the financial system which affect monetary policy, and the October 1979 changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures.
The purpose of this report is to provide statistical data on the actual number of businesses that are filing for bankruptcy or ceasing operations. Tabular data of both a historical and current nature concerning business failures and bankruptcies is provided.
This brief report outlines some possible macroeconomic implications of observing a statutory or constitutional commitment to balance the Federal budget. It does not address the legal questions about the proposal or their implementation, nor the economic and political questions related to decisions about the level of Federal revenues or expenditures. On the latter, its analysis refers to revenue and expenditure levels, in relation to total national product, typical of recent years.
This issue brief investigates the effects of changes in money supply growth on the current economic conditions. The results presented are based upon a statistical methodology outlined in a CRS report (No.82-43E, March 1982) of the same title. The approach may be distinguished from most previous work along these lines in that it attempts to estimate the statistical significance of the 1979-82 deceleration in monetary growth. The resulting estimates are then employed in analyzing the timing implications of decelerating monetary growth for episodes of high and volatile interest rates, for lower inflation, and for unstable economic growth.
In 1981 Congress enacted extensive changes in taxing and spending policies that supporters of these changes expected to generate sufficient revenues, despite a series of tax rate cuts, to balance the budget by FY84. After the onset of recession in early 1982, however, the Reagan Administration's projections showed widening budget deficits, which culminated in an actual FY83 deficit of $195.4 billion. Despite enactment of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, and, more recently, the Deficit Reduction Act of 1984, large deficits are expected to persist, even under continued favorable economic conditions, unless Federal taxing and spending policies are altered dramatically.
This report discusses the current state of monetary policy. Questions about the continued capability of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to exercise effective monetary control were raised in connection with several developments over recent years that diminished, in relative terms, the deposit component of the stock of money over which the FRS maintained reserve requirement controls. The Monetary Control Act, Title 1 of P.L. 96-221 was designed to ensure that the FRS as ability to conduct monetary policy is not diminished. This Act, signed into law on Mar. 31, 1980, is one of the few major amendments to the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913.
Japan has made considerable progress in opening its economy to imports, but significant obstacles remain. This report analyzes the underlying causes of Japan's market protection and assesses the prospects for Japan moving in the direction of greater market openness.
During the 1980s the U.S. banking industry has experienced a rapidly growing number of failures. Many factors have contributed to this trend including deregulation, technology, individual bank management, and economic conditions. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) handles insured bank failures. Congress has been monitoring the recent trend and is concerned with the FDIC’s ability to continue to perform its supervisory and insurance operations. The present situation, information on key factors affecting the banking industry, and the FDIC’s role when a bank fails is discussed in this report. The reference section of this issue brief contains a list of CRS products providing background on the FDIC and legislative issues relevant to the agency.
This report reviews the Congress's decision to freeze federal pay for one year as part of the budget resolution for the year, 1986. It discusses the standards to determine the Federal pay rate and the levels of pay that are set in place in the Federal government.
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