This report discusses possible outcomes and implications for U.S. interests vary. For example, increasingly effective political administration and reform with continued successful economic modernization would be generally compatible with U.S. interests in greater economic opportunity, foreign policy cooperation, and political liberalization in China. Alternatively, Chinese administration, economic vitality, and internal cohesion could degenerate, limiting U.S. economic opportunities, challenging U.S. interests in stability in East Asia, but also diminishing potential threats from a strong China. Finally, China could develop formidable economic power while retaining authoritarian political control, with China emerging as a world power less interested in accommodating U.S. interests than in opposing them.
This report tracks pending human rights legislation, including bills concerning: prison conditions and prison labor exports (H.R. 2195, H.R. 2358); coercive abortion practices (H.R. 2570); China’s policies toward religion (H.R. 967, H.R. 2431); and more general human rights issues (H.R. 2095). Other bills concern Taiwan — in particular, Taiwan’s entry into the World Trade Organization (H.Res. 190) and the U.S. role in helping Taiwan with a theater missile defense system (H.R. 2386). Also, legislation is pending on China’s missile proliferation activities (H.Res. 188), Radio Free Asia broadcasting to China (H.R. 2232), China’s participation in multilateral institutions (H.R. 1712, H.R. 2605), and the activities of China’s military and intelligence services (H.R. 2647, H.R. 2190).
Hong Kong's return to China on July 1, 1997, went surprisingly smoothly. In the ensuing months, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare in the longer run under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in recent years suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
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