Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035 Page: 67 of 231

                                
Residential sector energy demand

New approaches to energy efficiency
standards show potential for gains
Figure 44. Energy intensity for selected end uses of
electricity in the residential sector in three cases,
2008 and 2035 (kilowatthours per year)
3,000 -                             2035
200 -
2008     009 Technology
2,500  -  -  -. -. -    -- -  - -
2,00  -  -  - -  - -  -  -  -  - -  - -  -Referenc
20Best Available
,000-          - -  -               Technology
1,000-      -        -. 

500
0

III

I

I

Lighting   Central air    Water
conditioners   heating

TVs and PCs

The energy efficiency of residential appliances plays a
key role in determining the amount of energy used in
buildings. In recent years, the implementation of
Federal standards has fallen behind legislated sched-
ules, leading States and other groups to become more
active in promoting residential energy efficiency. In
2009, industry and efficiency advocate groups agreed
on a set of regional standards to supplant the national
standards currently in place. The new standards
would divide the Nation into three regions based on
climate characteristics for furnaces, heat pumps, and
central air conditioners [80].
The absence of appliance standards has implications
for energy use. Neither televisions nor set-top boxes
are covered by Federal standards today, although
some efficiency gains have been realized through
voluntary programs, such as Energy Star. In the
absence of standards, electricity use for personal
computers and related equipment (e.g., printers,
modems, and routers) grows at roughly the same rate
as population in the Reference case.
The potential effects of new efficiency standards are
most evident for lighting (Figure 44). Federal stand-
ards included in EISA2007 will require general-
service lighting to use about 30 percent less electricity
by 2014 for the same level of light output. In 2020, the
standard is tightened further, requiring general-
service lighting to use 60 percent less electricity than
today's incandescent bulbs. Overall, in the AEO2010
Reference case, electricity use for lighting per house-
hold in 2035 is 44 percent lower than in 2008.

Tax credits encourage installation
of renewable technologies
Figure 45. Residential market saturation
by renewable technologies in two cases, 2008, 2020,
and 2035 (percent share of single-family homes)
Solar
photovoltaics

Ground-source
heat pumps

2008

Reference
--                      Extended Policies

Solar
photovoltaics
2020
Ground-source
heat pumps
Solar

photovoltaics

Ground-source
heat pumps
0    2.0   4.0

2035

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

More than one-half of the States have either bind-
ing RPS or nonbinding voluntary targets for renew-
able energy generation. The recent enactment of
Federal ITCs for distributed renewable technologies
through 2016 provides the greater assurance neces-
sary for market development that will help States
achieve their renewable energy goals.
The AEO2010 Reference case assumes that Federal
tax credits for distributed renewable technologies
will expire as scheduled. The Extended Policies case
shows the implications of extending the tax credits
indefinitely. Whereas total installed PV capacity
reaches 9.5 gigawatts in 2035 in the Reference case, it
grows to 60.5 gigawatts in 2035 in the Extended
Policies case. The comparatively smaller distributed
wind turbine market is similarly affected, with 8.1
gigawatts installed in the Extended Policies case, as
compared with 1.7 gigawatts in the Reference case, in
2035.
Ground-source heat pumps are more energy effi-
cient-but also more expensive-than conventional
technologies. In the Reference case, implementation
of current incentives increases the number of instal-
lations from 47,000 units in 2008 to an average of
more than 150,000 units per year through 2016, when
the Federal tax credit expires. Even with the increase
in installations, however, the market share of
ground-source heat pumps is only 2.3 percent in 2035
in the Reference case, up from 0.3 percent in 2008
(Figure 45). In the Extended Policies case-with the
tax credit extended through 2035-the market share
nearly doubles, to 4 percent in 2035.

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010

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