Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035 Page: 41 of 231
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Issues in Focus
larger reduction in the index for carbon intensity
reflects a shift toward less carbon-intensive energy
sources in the Reference case, especially wind,
biofuels, and solar. In the Reference case, the ratio
of carbon emissions to energy consumption in 2035 is
5 percent lower than its 2008 value.
Energy consumption increases at an average annual
rate of 0.5 percent from 2008 to 2035 in the AEO2010
Reference case. The portion of the energy intensity
decline projected in the Reference case that can be
attributed to structural changes and the portion that
can be attributed to changes in energy efficiency is
illustrated by comparing the growth of primary
energy use in the Reference case with estimates of
constant energy efficiency and constant energy inten-
sity, calculated from the AEO2010 Reference case
(Figure 19).
Assuming no improvement in energy intensity be-
yond 2008, energy consumption would grow in the
Reference case at the rate of real GDP, 2.4 percent
annually, to 192 quadrillion Btu in 2035-77.6
quadrillion Btu (68 percent) higher than in the Refer-
ence case. Similarly, assuming no change in energy
efficiency beyond its 2008 level, energy consumption
would increase to 132.8 quadrillion Btu in 2035, or
18.3 quadrillion Btu (16 percent) higher than in the
Reference case. The intensity decline from structural
change in the Reference case, 59.2 quadrillion Btu, is
the difference between the projection for energy con-
sumption in 2035 when no change in energy intensity
is assumed and the same projection when no change
in energy efficiency is assumed. Thus, structural
change accounts for 76 percent of the decline in
energy intensity in the Reference case, and efficiency
improvement accounts for 24 percent.
Figure 19. Structural and efficiency effects on
primary energy consumption in the AEO2010
Reference case (quadrillion Btu)
Constant energy intensity estimate
76% Structural
150 - 128
24% JEfficiency
114.5
100 -
Constant energy efficiency estimate
Reference case
50 -0
2008Table 4 shows average annual growth rates from 2008
to 2035 for real GDP, population, and major indica-
tors for energy consumption in the end-use sectors in
the Reference case. Because the growth rate for real
GDP is higher than any of the other growth rates, en-
ergy consumption in each sector would be expected to
grow more slowly than real GDP, and energy inten-
sity would be expected to decline, even in the absence
of efficiency gains.
In each of the end-use sectors, most of the improve-
ment (decline) in energy intensity results from struc-
tural change: 82 percent in the buildings sectors,
where average annual increases in residential and
commercial floorspace are only about one-half the av-
erage increase in real GDP; 82 percent in the indus-
trial sector, where output from non-energy-intensive
manufacturing grows at twice the rate of output from
energy-intensive manufacturing; and 53 percent in
the transportation sector, where structural change is
slower and improvements in fuel efficiency as a result
of tightening fuel economy standards account for
47 percent of the decline in energy intensity. (For
further discussion of efficiency in the AEO2010 build-
ings cases, see box on page 31.)
Results for the Integrated Technology cases
The AEO2010 Low Technology case assumes that the
efficiency of newly purchased equipment does not im-
prove beyond what is currently available (although
end-use or process efficiency does improve to some ex-
tent as a result of stock turnover, because replace-
ment equipment nearly always is more efficient than
the equipment it replaces). The High Technology case
Table 4. Average annual increases in economic
output, population, and energy consumption
indicators in the buildings, industrial,
and transportation sectors, 2008-2035
(percent per year)Real GDP
Population
Buildings sector
Number of households
Commercial floorspace
Industrial sector
Real value of industrial shipments
Nonmanufacturing
Energy-intensive manufacturing
Non-energy-intensive manufacturing
Transportation sector
Vehicle miles traveled
Light-duty vehicles
Freight trucks
Air seat-miles
Rail ton-miles2.4
0.9
1.0
1.3
0.9
0.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.3
0.8U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
32
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United States. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035, report, April 2010; [Washington D.C.]. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc949175/m1/41/?q=%22energy%22: accessed May 29, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.