Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035 Page: 21 of 231
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Legislation and Regulations
The initial harmonized standards will affect model
year (MY) 2012 vehicles, and compliance require-
ments will increase in stringency through MY 2016,
building on NHTSA's enacted CAFE standard for
MY 2011. NHTSA has estimated the impact of the
new CAFE standards and has projected that the
proposed fleet-wide standards for LDVs will increase
fuel economy from 27.3 mpg in MY 2011 to 34.1 mpg
in MY 2016, an average annual increase of 4.3 per-
cent. EPA projects a fleet-wide reduction in C02-
equivalent emissions from 295 grams per mile for MY
2011 to 250 grams per mile for MY 2016 (Table 1).
Although the two separate standards were issued
jointly, there are important differences between
them. In lieu of increasing vehicle fuel economy,
EPA's vehicle C02-equivalent emissions standard
allows manufacturers to generate C02-equivalent
credits by reducing emissions of hydrofluorocarbons
by improving air conditioner systems and alternative
fuel use capabilities. NHTSA estimates that adoption
of cost-effective technologies will enable manufactur-
ers to achieve a fleet-wide minimum fuel economy
requirement of 34.1 mpg by 2016. Because the C02-
equivalent standards cover all vehicle emissions re-
lated to GHGs, manufacturers who do not implement
technologies that address non-fuel-related emissions
will have to comply with a fuel economy standard of
35.5 mpg by 2016.
The fuel standards use an attribute-based methodol-
ogy to determine the minimum fuel economy require-
ments and C02-equivalent emissions standards for
vehicles based on footprint, defined as the wheelbase
(the distance from the center of the front axle to the
center of the rear axle) times the average track width
(the distance between the center lines of the tires) in
square feet.
Table 1. Estimated average fleet-wide fuel economy
and C02-equivalent emissions compliance levels,
model years 2012-2016
Model year Passenger car Light truck Combined
NHTSA CAFE standard (miles per gallon)2012
33.3
2013 34.2
2014 34.9
2015 36.2
2016 37.5
EPA C02-equivalent emissions
2012 263
2013 256
2014 247
2015 236
2016 22525.4
26.0
26.6
27.5
28.8
standard
346
337
326
312
29829.7
30.5
31.3
32.6
34.1
(grams per mile)
295
286
276
263
250For example, a passenger car with a footprint of 44
square feet in MY 2016 will face a fuel economy stand-
ard of 38.8 mpg and a C02-equivalent emission stand-
ard of 218.6 grams per mile. Standards are revised in
subsequent model years to ensure improvement in
fuel economy and a reduction in C02-equivalent emis-
sions over time. Separate mathematical functions are
established for passenger cars and light trucks, re-
flecting their different design capabilities (Figures 5
and 6). As required by EISA2007, AEO2010 assumes
that CAFE standards will be increased, so that the
combined fuel economy of new LDVs will achieve the
required minimum of 35 mpg by 2020.
Manufacturer compliance is determined for CAFE by
a harmonically weighted average of sales of cars and
light trucks and for C02-equivalent emissions by a
Figure 5. Projected average fleet-wide fuel
economy and C02-equivalent emissions compliance
levels for passenger cars, model year 2016
(miles per gallon equivalent)
50 -
40 -
Emissions
30- CAFE
20 -10 -
0
39 41 44 48 52 56
Vehicle footprint60 64 68
Figure 6. Projected average fleet-wide fuel
economy and C02-equivalent emissions compliance
levels for light trucks, model year 2016
(miles per gallon equivalent)
50 -
40 -
Emissions
30-
20 -
10 -0
39 41 44 48 52 56
Vehicle footprint60 64 68
U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010
12
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United States. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2010: With Projections to 2035, report, April 2010; [Washington D.C.]. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc949175/m1/21/?q=%22energy%22: accessed June 4, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.