Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service

Ch. 6--Implications for Postal Rates, Service Levels, and Labor Requirements .67

Figure II.-Sensitivity Analyses of Projected Changes in USPS Labor Force Requirements
Assuming High But Plausible Generation II EMS Growth and
1.5-Percent Annual Labor Productivity Improvement

for 1995 and 2000

1980 USPS labor force
667,000 employees

3% underlying mailstream growth
"o 100% Generation II EMS stimulation
",d.EFT growth cut in half
l' Generation III delayed 3 years
S '2% underlying mall growth
. Generation III accelerated 3 years
1 USPS does not deliver
industry Generation II output
1% underlying mall growth
Second-/third-class mall
losses to alternative
delivery

Year

Sensitivity assumptions Change in USPS labor force
(assume 20/. underlying mainstream (percent of 1980 total employees)
growth unless otherwise indicated) 1985 1990 1995 2000
3% growth in underlying mainstream ......... . ....... + 5.7 + 5.6 - 2.7 - 13.8
100/0 stimulation of additional Generation II EMS . . . . . . . . + 2.0 + 2.1 - 5.0 - 17.7
EFT growth rates cut in half ....... .................... + 0.7 - 1.5 - 9.4 - 18.3
Generation Ill EMS delayed by 3 years ...... ............ + 1.4 + 0.1 - 6.6 -1 8.9
2/0 growth in underlying mainstream .... . . . . . . . . . . . + 0.6 -2.4 - 12.2 -23.3
Generation Ill EMS accelerated by 3 years ... . . . . . . . . .. - 0.8 - 6.8 - 17.6 -26.7
USPS does not deliver industry Generation II . . . . . . . . .. - 0.7 -6.8 - 19.2 - 29.0
10/0 growth in underlying mainstream ................... - 3.7 - 9.4 -20.1 - 30.9
Second-Ithird-class mail diversion to alternative delivery. .. - 6.0 -12.2 -22.8 -34.3

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment

United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39480/. Accessed August 20, 2014.