Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service

Ch. 4-Market Penetration Results 41

billion pieces in 1990 and decline to slightly
more than 110 billion pieces in 2000. Thus, if
the underlying growth rate in the mainstream
equals or exceeds 3 percent annually, USPS-
delivered mail volume would exceed 1981
levels at least through 2000. In other words,
with a 3-percent underlying growth rate, the
USPS-delivered mail volume (conventional
plus Generation II EMS) would not drop

below the estimated 1981 volume of 110 billion
pieces until 2000. Even the conventional mail
volume would not drop below 110 billion pieces
until roughly 1994. The relative breakdown of
mail by class would not be significantly dif-
ferent for an underlying growth of 3 percent
as compared with 2 percent, but the volumes
for all types of mail would be significantly
higher, as indicated in figure 6.

Figure 6.-Breakdown of Mail by Class for High But Plausible Generation II EMS Growth Alternative
(assuming 3/0 growth in underlying mainstream)

" Total USPS - delivered
first-class mail
(conventional and Generation II EMS
USPS - delivered
conventional
first-class mail
USPS - delivered
all other classes
of mail

(
Type of mail 1985
Conventional first-class . . . . . . . . . . . 74.43
Conventional other ............... 48.03
Generation II EMS first-class . . . . . . . 2.06
Generation II EMS other . . . . . . . . 0.66
USPS - delivered totals
First-class. ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.49
Other classes ., . . . . . . . . . . . ....48.69
Second, third, fourth classes, and miscellaneous
bTh d class

Volume
in billions
1990
72.16
51.78
8.25
2.02

of mail
of pieces)
1995 2000
56.20 40.51
51.94 53.47
16.26 15.65
2.19 1.17

80.41 72.46 56.16
53.80 54.13 54.64

1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment.

United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39480/. Accessed September 22, 2014.