Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service

Contents
Page
In trod u ction . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. ... . 23
B aseline M ailstream ................................. ..... ....... 24
E F T D iversion ... .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. ... . ..... ....... 26
EM S Diversion ............................ .......... .......... . 27
Generation II Growth and Timing Estimates ...................... 29
Generation III Growth and Timing Estimates ....... . ........... . 30
Relationships Between Generation II and Generation III Estimates... 31
Alternative Generation II Growth and Timing Estimates ............ 32
Underlying Mainstream Growth ....................... ........ . 33
TABLES
Table No. Page
1. Baseline M ainstream ........................................... 24
2. Mail Content................... .............................. 24
3. Major Mailstream Segments Vulnerable to Penetration by Electronic
Funds Transfer................................................ 25
4. Major Mainstream Segments Vulnerable to Penetration by Electronic
M ail and M essage Systems ..................................... 25
5. Assumptions About Rate of EFT Penetration ..................... 26
6. Assumptions About Rate of EMS Penetration ..................... 29
7. Assumptions for Generation II Growth Alternatives ............... 32
8. Alternative Assumptions About Underlying Mainstream
G row th Rate .............................................. 33
FIGURES
Figure No. Page
1. M arket Penetration M odel ............ ............. ...........23
2. Comparison of Conventional Mail Service With Generations I,II,
and III EMS Service .... ................. .......... 28

United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. Implications of Electronic Mail and Message Systems for the U.S. Postal Service. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc39480/. Accessed August 30, 2014.