Tidal Wave II, Community Colleges, and Student Financial Aid Page: 23
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Tidal Wave II, Community Colleges,
and Student Financial Aid
David E. Hardy
University of Alabama
Stephen G. Katsinas
University of Alabama
V. Barbara Bush
University of North Texas
Abstract
In the early 1990s, Clark Kerr and others predicted "Tidal Wave II"-a bulge of graduates
from America's high schools wanting access to higher education. The bulge was to start
around 1998 and last until about 2010. This paper examines the impact of Tidal Wave II
on public community colleges for the five-year period 2000-2001 to 2005-2006, through
the use of National Center for Education Statistics data sets for enrollment and student
financial aid. Data are then analyzed by the 2005 Basic Classifications ofAssociate's
Colleges from the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. A detailed picture
of the impact of Tidal Wave II enrollments on different institutional types of two year colleges
(rural, suburban, urban, and other), and by type of financial aid awarded is presented.
oday's American public community colleges are in the midst of the
most dramatic enrollment surge since the middle of the 1960s Baby
Boom. In just five years, from 2000-2001 to 2005-2006, total
enrollment-that is, annual unduplicated headcount of for-credit students-
at all publicly-controlled Associate's Colleges jumped from 7,828,175 to
10,177,702, an increase of 30% (see Table 1).
This striking increase in enrollments was anticipated by many leading experts.
In 1994, the late Clark Kerr predicted a coming "Tidal Wave II [that] will start
in 1997 or 1998, when the grandchildren of the (WWII) GIs enter college."
He noted that this wave was "inevitable," and would last until about 2010
(Kerr, 1994, p. 5-6). Kerr predicted that in California alone, nearly one-half
million more students would soon need to be served, a number confirmed byEnrollment Management Journal Winter 2007
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Hardy, David E.; Katsinas, Stephen G. & Bush, V. Barbara. Tidal Wave II, Community Colleges, and Student Financial Aid, article, 2007; [Round Rock, Texas]. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc32895/m1/1/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT College of Education.