The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change

The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change
Contents
IN TR O D U CTION ................................................................................................................................. 1
POLICY BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... ..................... 1
REVIEW OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................... 3
IM PACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE...................................................................................... ..................... 3
M ajor catastrophic effects............................................................................................................. 16
The Key Impacts of Climate Change............................................................................................. 17
THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT STABILISATION TARGETS......................................... 17
H e a lth ......................... ...... ..... .... ... ........ .................. ... . ... ....................................... 1 8
Figure 3. Estimates for relative risks of malaria attributable to climate change ........................ 20
Ecosystem s ............................................................................... .......................... 21
Major Catastrophic Effects .......................... ...................... 24
Summary of climate impacts in relation to temperature increase.............................................. 25
REVIEW OF VALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ................................................................ 26
LITERATURE REVIEW .......................... ................................... .................. 28
Figure 5. Marginal social cost of greenhouse gas emissions from 28 studies............................. 28
The probability characteristics of the marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions ..................... 29
ASSESSING THE COVERAGE OF THE LITERATURE VALUES ....................................... ..................... 30
KEY CHOICES IN DETERMINING THE VALUES (BENEFITS)........................................ ..................... 33
D isco u n t R ate .................................................... .................................................. ........................ 3 3
Weighting of Effects (Distributional or Equity Weighting) ........................................................ 36
The Time Period of Em issions.................................................................................................... 39
M odel T im e-H orizon ..................................................................................................................... 4 0
Reporting of Statistical D ata...................................................................................................... 40
Strong and Weak Sustainability ................................................................................................. 41
M arg in al Effects.......................................................................................................................... 4 1
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF DIFFERENT STABILISATION TARGETS............................... ..................... 42
Specifying Stabilisation Targets......................................................................................................... 42
Conversion table Stabilisation Target for >2100 ............................................................................. 42
Knowledge Elicitation of Experts............................................................................................... 42
M odel Analysis with the PAGE M odel....................................................................................... 44
F UN D analysis......................................................................... ....... . ................... 49
A d ap ta tio n costs ............................................................................................................................ 5 1
ANCILLARY EFFECTS .................................................................................................................... 52
AIR QUALITY ........................................................................ 52
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS ................................................ 53
ENERGY SECURITY AND OIL IMPORTS .................................................... 54
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS, TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS........................................... 54
INNOVATION ......................................................................... 54
LIFESTYLE CHANGES .................................................................. 54
TECHNOLOGY SPECIFIC (NUCLEAR)..................................................... 54
SUMMARY OF ANCILLARY EFFECTS..................................................... 55
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ............................................................................ 56

REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................... 58
APPENDIX 1 HUMAN SYSTEM IMPACTS .................................................................................. 61
AEA Technology Environment, August 2005 viii

Watkiss, Paul; Downing, Tom; Handley, Claire & Butterfield, Ruth. The Impacts and Costs of Climate Change. Oxford, England. UNT Digital Library. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29337/. Accessed September 17, 2014.