Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage Page: 59
122 p. : ill.View a full description of this text.
Extracted Text
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
Table 22. Impacts on air pollution and air pollution control costs
Change compared to reference case
30% with flexibility 30 internal
30% internal
(25% internal)
SO2 emissions (kt) -199 -424
NOx emissions (kt) -171 -350
PM2.5 emissions (kt) -27 -54
Air pollution reduction (% cf to the
reference case in 2020 (sum SO2, NOx 4 9
and PM2.5)
Reduction health damage compared to
3.5 to 8.1 7.3 to 16.7
reference (o08 billion/year)
Reduction Air pollution control costs
2.8 5.3
(o08 billion/year)
Note: based on GAINS model for emission, health impacts and air pollution control costs. Benefit
valuation uses valuation of mortality used for the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and 2008
Climate and Energy package. Morbidity not included in health damage. Air pollution control cost
estimates use a 4% social discount rate and would be higher with private discount rates used in
PRIMES.83
In addition to these air pollution effects, a reduction in GHG emissions of 30% will reduce oil
and gas imports compared to the reference scenario. These effects are included in the
aggregate impacts reported from the modelling exercises in section 5.2. In case of a -25%
reduction in GHG emission domestically oil imports would be reduced by around 11 Mtoe
(1% lower than the reference in 2020). Gas imports would be 1% lower (10 Mtoe). A -30%
reduction domestically would reduce oil imports by 2% or some 18 Mtoe. Gas imports would
be 12 Mtoe or 3 % lower than the reference scenario in 2020.
Table 23 indicates that the reduction in oil and gas imports implies a reduction in the import
bill of around 9 billion in 2020 in case of a -25% reduction domestically compared to the
reference scenario. In case of a -30% reduction domestically in greenhouse gas emissions the
EU would have to pay some 14 billion less to import oil and gas. The majority of the savings
would come from a reduction in oil imports. The energy import dependency of the EU would
be slightly reduced compared to the reference case, from nearly 57% to around 56%.
Table 23: Reduction in oil and gas imports (bn 2008).
Domestic GHG reductions -25% -30%
vs 1990 by 2020
Oil 5.5 9.7
Gas 3.6 4.5
Sum 9.1 14.1
Source: PRIMES
Compared to the baseline, a 30% reduction internally would lower oil imports with 41 Mtoe
and gas imports with 65 Mtoe. With flexibility (a 25% reduction internally) oil imports would
be 33 Mtoe and gas imports 62 Mtoe lower. A 30% reduction internally reduces the oil and83 See Annex to SEC(2008) 85/3 i.e. page 77.
59
EN
EN
Upcoming Pages
Hereās whatās next.
Search Inside
This text can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Text.
European Commission. Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage, text, 2010; Brussels, Belgium. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29324/m1/60/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .