Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage Page: 48
122 p. : ill.View a full description of this text.
Extracted Text
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
2600
2400
2200
2000
o 1800
0
1600
1400 -
1200
1000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
SBuffer: unused int. credits and banked allowances +Allowances with set-aside Emissions
Source: Calculations based on PRIMES, GAINS
5.3. Possible contribution of land use, land use change and forestry
This section summarizes the current state of an assessment made on land use, land use change
and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and removals and their potential in the EU27 towards
meeting GHG targets. This assessment has not yet been finalised.
Two different model set-ups are used to assess the impacts from forest management and
afforestation/reforestation: one using the G4M + EUFASOM models combined and another
one using the EFISCEN + EUFASOM models combined. Both model set-ups use largely the
same input data but work at different scales and level of aggregation.
Table 13 summarises the results of the baseline projections for LULUCF for EU-27. It shows
the projected changes in removals and emissions, i.e. the effects of accounting rules are not
considered. This baseline is consistent with the PRIMES energy baseline (see section 3.2) in
terms of the expected demand for energy from biomass and biofuels.
Net removals from the sector (i.e. LULUCF acting as a sink) will decrease significantly
between 2005 and 2020 using the G4M + EUFASOM model set-up, from 175 Mt CO2-eq in
2005 down to 134 Mt in 2030, and beyond. The second model combination, EFISCEN +
EUFASOM, suggests the sector sink to remain more or less stable until 2030. Results are
preliminary pending comments from Member States and final calibration with data submitted
to the UNFCCC. Nevertheless, it is clear that considerable uncertainty on baseline projections
will remain, more so at the Member State level than at the EU level.
Clearly, afforestation (considered as forest established since 1990 to date) will increase, as it
represent an ever increasing area. Deforestation emissions are projected to decrease slowly
over the period and projections of forest management suggest that removals will decrease but
the order of magnitude varies significantly between the models. Cropland emissions areEN 48 EN
Upcoming Pages
Here’s what’s next.
Search Inside
This text can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Text.
European Commission. Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage, text, 2010; Brussels, Belgium. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29324/m1/49/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .