Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage Page: 17
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Integrated crop-livestock system (estimated reduction: 18 to 22 Mt CO2-eq);
- No-till farming (range of estimated reduction: 16 to 20 Mt CO2-eq in 2020);
- Biological N2 fixation (range of estimated reduction: 16 to 20 Mt CO2-eq in 2020);
- Energy efficiency (range of estimated reduction: 12 to 15 Mt CO2-eq in 2020);
- Increase in the use of biofuels (range of estimated reduction: 48 to 60 Mt CO2-eq);
- Increase in the energy supply by hydroelectric power plants (range of estimated reduction:
79 to 99 Mt CO2-eq);
- Alternative energy sources (range of estimated reduction: 83 to 104 Mt CO2-eq);
- Iron and steel: replacement of charcoal from deforestation with charcoal from planted
forests (range of estimated reduction: 8 to 10 Mt CO2-eq).
These measures are voluntary and will be implemented in accordance to the principles of the
UNFCCC Articles 4, 10 and 12 (including references to financing and technology transfer
from developed countries). It is unclear to what extent Brazil sees this as a conditionality.
The Brazilian pledge does not refer to any (sectoral) baselines, even though they are
expressed as reduction compared to baseline. As such, there will be accounting issues on how
to measure if a pledge is achieved or not. For instance for the largest pledges, those that relate
to LULUCF activities, there are large uncertainties on the accounting of emissions.. Pledges
would be lower (higher) in ambition if accounting methods are used that increase (decrease)
the total amount of emissions for a given amount of deforestation. As such it will be difficult
to assess ex post the achievement of pledges if there is not more clarity beforehand on the
accounting principles applied.
Even though not submitted under the Copenhagen Accord, baselines produced by the
Brazilian government do exist21. Applying the pledged reductions to these Brazilian
projections, the emissions would decrease by some 11.5-15% compared to 2005.
Even though accounting uncertainty exists, it is clear that the proposed reductions in
deforestation can be considered as very positive. Things however may be different on the
energy side. Brazil's own baseline projection for 2020 indicate emissions equal to 900 MtCO2_
eq for the energy sector. This is significantly higher than the reference emissions scenario by
the IEA (WEO 2009) or the POLES model22. Using the Brazilian baseline, pledges would not
result in emissions much lower than baseline projections of other institutions without pledges.
Brazil is more explicit than China on the use of CDM, which it sees as contributing also to its
own pledge. When assessing global emission scenarios this should be taken into account to
21 See, for instance, the presentation given by Dilma Vana Roussef, Brazilian Minister Chief of staff, in
November 2009 in Copenhagen, on Brazilian mitigation actions. Following the information contained
in this presentation it can be deducted that projected emissions are about 2.7 Gt CO2-eq in the baseline
by 2020.
22 It should be noted that Brazil assumes higher GDP growth than these other models.EN 17 EN
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European Commission. Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage, text, 2010; Brussels, Belgium. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29324/m1/18/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .