Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage Page: 10
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It does not recognise surplus AAUs from the first commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol.
Emissions from international aviation are included in the target and the legislation
foresees the need to include international maritime emissions, if no progress is
achieved at the international level to include these.
Emissions and removals from LULUCF are at present not included in the
achievement of the reduction target, but may be at a later stage given the legislation
foresees already that accounting rules should ensure permanence and environmental
integrity.
United States
The US has pledged emission reductions of "-17% with respect to 2005, in conformity with
anticipated U.S. energy and climate legislation, recognizing that the final target will be
reported to the Secretariat in light of enacted legislation". The text of the US pledge also
notes that "the pathway set forth in pending legislation would entail a 30% reduction in 2025
and a 42% reduction in 2030, in line with the goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050." With
respect to 1990 emission levels, the pledge corresponds to -3% in 2020.
A reduction of -17% vs 2005 is less than the EU's high end pledge (-24%7 vs 2005). This is
not in line with the expectations following the list set of criteria set forward by the EU to
differentiate efforts between developed countries in the run-up to Copenhagen8. The US has a
higher capability to pay, has done less domestic early action and is more greenhouse gas
intensive than the EU.
The main uncertainty is that the pledge is not yet supported by domestic legislation, which is
pending in Congress, and the lack of clarity on the accounting rules that will be applied within
this domestic legislation. Some of the legislative proposals foresee ample use of both
international and domestic offsets (agriculture and forestry), with allowed amounts that are
significantly higher than those foreseen in the EU legislation (which at present does not
include LULUCF activities) and with potentially not all sectors covered.
The real ambition level of any US actions will in the end depend to a large extent on how
these accounting rules are defined.
Japan
Japan has offered a 25% reduction with respect to 1990, "which is premised on the
establishment of a fair and effective international framework in which all major economies
participate and on agreement by those economies on ambitious targets".
Japan's pledge of a 25% reduction target vs. 1990 is ambitious and in line with EU's
comparability criteria. But LULUCF accounting rules remain unclear and should not give
credits for actions that are not additional as is the case at present under the first commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol9.
Reduction excluding international aviation. Including international aviation the EU high end pledge is
even more ambitious compared to 2005.
8 Environmental Council Conclusions, 9 March 20099 The Marrakech Accords allow Japan to issue emission rights (RMUs) for forest management activities
equal to a yearly issuance of around 3% of Japan's 1990 emissions (excluding LULUCF).
EN 10EN
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European Commission. Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage, text, 2010; Brussels, Belgium. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc29324/m1/11/: accessed April 19, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .