Final Vermont Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Reference Case Projections, 1990-2030 Page: 9

                                
Final Vermont GHG Inventory and Reference Case Projection, 1990-2030
CCS, September 2007
Waste Management
Agriculture                      U 2005 - 2030
Other Ind. Process                    O 1990 - 2005
ODS Substitutes (HFCs)*
Transportation (with CA standards)
Fossil Fuel Industry
RCI Fuel Use*
Electricity Consumption
(Low-Emission Scenario, With New DSM)
Electricity Consumption
(High-Emission Scenario, With New DSM)
Electricity Consumption
(Low-Emission Scenario, No New DSM)
Electricity Consumption
(High-Emission Scenario, No New DSM)  I____
-0.5   0.0    0.5    1.0    1.5   2.0    2.5    3.0    3.5
MMtCO2e
* RCI - direct fuel use in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. ODS - ozone depleting substance. HFCs -
hydrofluorocarbons.
A Closer Look at the Two Major Sources: Transportation and Electricity
Supply
As shown in Figure 2, GHG emissions from transportation fuel use have risen steadily since
1990 at an average rate of slightly over 1.1% annually. Gasoline-powered vehicles account for
about 82% of total transportation GHG emissions in 1990, 78% in 2005, and are projected to
decrease from 77% to about 70% of total transportation emissions between 2010 and 2030. The
decrease in the portion of transportation emissions attributed to gasoline consumptions between
2010 and 2020 is due to the adoption of California's light-duty vehicle GHG standards. Diesel
vehicles account for another 13% of total transportation GHG emissions in 1990, and are
projected to increase from 17% to about 20% of total transportation emissions between 2010 and
2030. Although the California light-duty vehicle GHG standards also affect diesel vehicles, the
diesel sector is dominated by heavy-duty vehicles, so the impact of the California program on
diesel transportation emissions is less significant than the impact on gasoline emissions. Air
travel accounted for roughly 2.4% of total transportation emissions in 1990, 4.3% in 2005, and is

projected to increase from 4.9% of total emissions in 2010 to 7.2% of total emissions by 2030.
Vermont Department of                           9                        Center for Climate Strategies
Environmental Conservation                                                  www.climatestrategies.us