Minnesota Climate Change Advisory Group Final Report Page: 6

                                
Figure 2-2. Gross GHG emissions by sector, 2005: Minnesota and U.S.

Minnesota
Transport   Industrial        US                   Transport
24%
Res/Com                    Process                                 27%
Fuel Use                    1.0%                                              Industrial
10%                                        Res/Com                           Process
Waste        Fuel Use                            5%
3.2%           8%                              Waste
Industrial                                                                          3%
Fuel Use
10%                              Agric.     Industrial                          Agric.
14%         Fuel Use -8%
13%
Fossil                      Forests          Fossil Fuel
Fuel Ind.                      2.1%             Ind.
(CH4) 1.4%                                       3%
(CH4) 14%     Electricity                                         Electricity
34%                                                 33%
Note At a national level, forests act as a net sink of CO2, therefore, they do not show up in the above graph of gross
US emissions sources
Reference Case Projections
Relying on a variety of sources for projections, as noted in the Inventory and Projections report,
a simple reference case projection of GHG emissions through 2025 was developed. As illustrated
in Figure 2-3 and shown numerically in Table 2-1, under the reference case projections,
Minnesota's gross GHG emissions continue to grow steadily, climbing to about 200 MMtCO2e
by 2025, 68% above 1990 levels. This equates to an annual rate of growth of 1.2% per year. By
2025, the share of emissions associated with electricity consumptions grows to 40% of total
gross and net GHG emissions. The share of emissions from the RCI fuel use sector increase
slightly to 21% of Minnesota's gross and net GHG emissions in 2025, while the share of
emissions from the transportation sectors declines somewhat to 20% by 2025, with slightly lower
emissions than the RCI fuel use sector.
Emissions associated with electricity generation and imports to meet in-state demand is projected
to be the largest contributor to future emissions growth, followed by emissions associated with
the RCI fuel use, as shown in Figure 2-4. Other sources of emissions growth include agriculture,
primarily from agricultural soils; transportation fuel use, primarily from on-road diesel; the
transmission and distribution of natural gas; and the increasing use of HFCs and PFCs as
substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) in refrigeration, air conditioning, and other
applications. Table 2-2 summarizes the growth rates that drive the growth in the Minnesota
reference case projections as well as the sources of these data.